It’s fascinating how things can change from week to week in racing. Last week’s History Says, for instance, detailed the woeful guide to the BMW Caulfield Cup that the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes is, having failed to supply a winner of Caulfield’s signature race in the past 30 years, says Brad Bishop at Racing Victoria. It’s a completely different story with this week’s feature, the $400,000 Group 1 Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes.

The 2000-metre Turnbull Stakes, run at Flemington on the first Saturday in October and the natural progression for many Underwood runners, is the only race that rivals Saturday’s 1800m event as a Caulfield Cup guide in the past two decades.

Half the Caulfield Cup winners in that time have taken in the Underwood Stakes en route the 2400-metre feature a month later.

Southern Speed (2011) and Viewed (2009) are the two most recent Caulfield Cup winners to come via the Underwood, while Northerly, Mummify and Elvstroem provided three straight years of the double being completed.

Northerly also won the Cox Plate the year that he won the Underwood and Caulfield Cup, having also completed the Underwood-Cox Plate double in 2001. Fourteen other horses have also completed the Underwood-Cox Plate double in the same Spring Racing Carnival, including So You Think and Ocean Park of late. Maldivian (2008) is the other Cox Plate winner to have come through the Underwood in the past 20 years.

Only twice has the Underwood winner gone on to claim the Melbourne Cup, the latest being Jeune in 1994, but Doriemus (1995), Jezabeel (1998) and Viewed (2008) won the Flemington two-miler after contesting the Underwood.

Form Focus data reveals a common theme has emerged as the key to Underwood success in the past three years.

After the Underwood became an 1800m event in 1994 – it was previously run over 2000m – the first 16 winners entered the race with at least two lead-ups runs under their belt with eight of those having had at least three runs behind them.

But the past three winners have all been second up off a 1400m resumption. So You Think (2010) won it after winning the Memsie Stakes, while Lion Tamer (2011) and Ocean Park (2012) have shared the past two editions after resuming in the Group 1 Makfi Challenge in New Zealand.

It’s A Dundeel (fourth), Green Moon (fifth), Silent Achiever (11th) and My Quest for Peace (12th) are those heading into the Underwood after resuming in the Memsie Stakes, while Dear Demi – who finished seventh in the Let’s Elope Stakes – is the other runner second-up off a 1400m run.

This year’s Underwood favourite, Atlantic Jewel, won the Memsie Stakes first-up and last week stretched her unbeaten record to nine with victory in the Stocks Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley.

Atlantic Jewel will become the 17th galloper to complete the Memsie-Underwood double if successful, but the biggest statistic she has against her is the recent inability of mares to win the Underwood.

Not since Tristarc in 1985 has a female accounted for the boys in the Underwood Stakes.

And it’s not as if the girls have been poorly represented with 30 females having contested the past 10 editions of the race. The best results have been second placings to She’s Archie (2004), Miss Finland (2007), Dariana (2010) and Southern Speed (2011), while two others have finished third.

Silent Achiever and Dear Demi are the other mares engaged in this year’s Underwood.

Atlantic Jewel opened the $1.45 favourite after drawing barrier seven – the gate Sharscay (1995), Northerly (2001) and El Segundo (2006) started from the year they won the Underwood – and she will join Weekend Hussler and So You Think as odds-on winners in recent times if successful.

In total, five favourites have won the Underwood as an 1800m event, but there have been just as many score at double-figure odds including Rubiscent at $41 in 2007.

The full field for this year’s Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes is available via the link.