Recent history says, if the punters come for Sincero in Saturday's Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes, the New South Wales visitor could be a good thing in the $400,000 Group 1.A quirky pattern has evolved in the past six years that has seen a popular result for punters followed by a rough result, meaning that the favourite is due with Lion Tamer scoring at $16 last year.But there is a more compelling statistical case for Sincero, who won the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at his first run back

Recent history says, if the punters come for Sincero in Saturday's Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes, the New South Wales visitor could be a good thing in the $400,000 Group 1.

A quirky pattern has evolved in the past six years that has seen a popular result for punters followed by a rough result, meaning that the favourite is due with Lion Tamer scoring at $16 last year.

But there is a more compelling statistical case for Sincero, who won the Group 2 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at his first run back from a spell on 1 September.

The past three Memsie Stakes winners to contest the 1800m Underwood have all won. El Segundo did it in 2006, Weekend Hussler repeated the dose in 2008 - having won the Makybe Diva Stakes in between - and So You Think also completed the double in 2010.

They were also the three favourites that have won as part of the alternating pattern.

At 8.30am on Friday, Sincero occupied the $5.50 second line in the TAB's market with Manighar the ruling $2.40 top pick.

That has Manighar well placed to improve the record of the Makyba Diva Stakes as the most prolific Underwood lead-up.

Despite the impressive strike rate of recent Memsie winners in the Underwood, the Makybe Diva Stakes has been the most popular path, having produced 13 of the past 24 Underwood winners including five of the past nine.

Northerly and Weekend Hussler have completed the double since 2001, a feat achieved by eight other horses in the 64 years of the Makybe Diva Stakes (formerly known as the Craiglee Stakes).

Southern Speed, who nosed out Manighar to win this year's Makybe Diva Stakes, has a couple of hoodoos to overcome if she is to become the 11th horse to complete the double.

No mare has won the Underwood since it became an 1800m event in 1994 and you have to go back a further nine years, when it was run over 2000m, to find the most recent female winner (Tristarc).

The pride of South Australia, who finished second in last year's Underwood, is no stranger to breaking hoodoos, however, having snapped a 16-year drought for the girls when she won the Makybe Diva.

She will also join 1969 Underwood winner Rain Lover as the only horse to win the race 12 months after running second if she can go one better in 2012.

Last year's Underwood effort didn't harm Southern Speed spring campaign, going on to win the Caulfield Cup and adding to the phenomenal record of the Underwood as a Caulfield Cup lead-up.

Half of the past 22 winners of the Caulfield Cup have come through the Underwood, including three straight winners who did the double - Northerly, Mummify and Elvstroem - from 2002-04.

It has also been a good Cox Plate guide with 15 horses doing the double, including six since 1986, but Rain Lover and Jeune are the only ones to have completed the Underwood-Melbourne Cup double.

Import Manighar will need to create history if he is to win with no eight-year-old having won the race in the past 30 years, although the only two winners older than six, Almaarad and Always Aloof, were also imports.

He, like Sincero, is second-up, and while the Underwood went 20 years without being won by a horse who had only had one run back from a spell after Almaarad scored in 1989, both So You Think and Lion Tamer had only had one run under their belts going into the Underwood.

That has been the popular approach by trainers this year with Voila Ici, Maluckyday, Niwot, December Draw, Mawingo, Sanagas, Illo, Zabeelionaire and Ocean Park also second-up in Saturday's race.

The latter pair have one significant stat in their favour, that being that they are four-year-olds, an age group that has won the past four editions of the Underwood.

The Underwood is the main race on Saturday's card but it isn't the only key Spring pointer with another crucial Caulfield Cup being held in the form of the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes.

The 2000m event carries a ballot exemption from the Caulfield Cup, which makes it attractive to trainers of horses well down the Order of Entry, but it hasn't been a great guide to the world's richest handicap event since its inception in 1994.

Tawqeet, who ran fifth behind Zipping in the 2006 edition, is the only Caulfield Cup winner to come through the Naturalism.

The other vital lead-up on Saturday's card is the Group 3 Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude and while its name suggests it is the definitive Guineas guide, only seven of the past 20 Guineas winners have come through the 1400m race.

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