The Kilos Killer: Ratings - The Weight vs Speed Battle

Weight ratings or speed ratings? Philip Roy tested both on Australian horse racing form, three months at the Sydney tracks, and one of them finished a long way in front. Writing in Practical Punting in September 1994, he came down on the side of the plainer method for a reason that has nothing to do with cleverness: weight ratings can be easily applied, and speed ratings take much more time. The whole thing turns on one exchange rate — for beaten runners, one length equals 1.5 kilos.

What you'll learn:

• The test he actually ran: three months at the Sydney tracks on the Saturday Daily Doubles races, where the Weight Ratings top selections showed an 18 per cent level stakes profit and the US speed ratings approach recorded a 27 per cent loss
• The rule the whole method rests on — for beaten runners, one length equals 1.5 kilos, which is where "the kilos can be the killers" comes from
• The Gosford example worked end to end: a Class 2 race with a 44 class figure on the Don Scott list, a horse carrying 55 kg on a 52 kg limit and beaten 3 lengths, and how that becomes a rating of 42.5 — then 40.0 at its next start
• "Easy Weight Ratings", his four-line version for anyone who is never going to do the full workout: the horse's own weight as the base figure, the equivalent margin deducted, and the highest figure at the end of the workout is your number one selection