History Says Prince Harada will need to be every bit of the superstar that trainer Tony Vasil has predicted is he is to win Saturday’s BECK Caulfield Guineas. The untapped colt carries a number of historical millstones into the $1 million Group 1 at Caulfield, says Racing Victoria.

For starters, he has to do something that has not been achieved in the past 30 years in Australia’s biggest 1600-metre race for three-year-olds.

The Form Focus data that helps provide History Says’ information goes back to 1983 and in that time the Caulfield Guineas has not been won by a horse coming off a 28-day break, as Prince Harada is, having not started since his fifth in the Golden Rose on 14 September.

Mahogany, the 1993 Guineas winner, had the longest break between runs – 24 days between his Spring Stakes second placing and Guineas victory. Six others, including last year’s winner All Too Hard, have won the Guineas off a 21-day break.

Where Prince Harada finished in the Golden Rose doesn’t help his Guineas chances from a historical viewpoint either. Econsul – the blowout winner from 2004 – is the only Guineas winner from the past 20 years to have finished further back than fourth at his previous start.

Only two other winners in that time have finished outside the top three at their final lead-up run with 10 the past 20 going into the Guineas last-start winners. Seven of Saturday’s field of 14 placed at their most recent outings, but Éclair Big Bang and Divine Calling are the only last-start winners.

Éclair Big Bang’s win came in the Caulfield Prelude, which has provided nine of the past 13 Guineas winners. Guineas Prelude placegetters El Roca and Long John are also in Saturday’s race and all three, significantly, have drawn well.

Thirteen of the past 20 winners have started from barriers one, two, three or four, including five from the inside alley that Long John will occupy. El Roca will start from two and Éclair Big Bang four with Charlie Boy to jump from gate three.

Prince Harada will start from barrier 12 – the alley God’s Own started from in 2005 – while another leading fancy, Peter Moody’s Dissident, has barrier 13.

The barrier draw ensured Long John’s place at the head of the market in advance of Prince Harada, who was Guineas favourite before the Golden Rose, but the Guineas has not been a spectacular race for favourites of late with only three of the past 10 saluting.

In that time there have been four Guineas winners at double-figure odds, including last year’s winner All Too Hard ($12) and Econsul, who started at $41 but paid closer to $60 in the tote.

Those upsets, mind you, were nothing compared with what punters endured from 1986 when $251 chance Abaridy scored the biggest blowout in Victorian Group 1 history, which was followed by winners are $67, $5.50, $34, $26 and $16.

One of the day’s other Group 1s – the $400,000 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) – has been more palatable for favourite punters with three of the past four favourites saluting, including So You Think (2010) and Ocean Park (2012) at odds-on.

Atlantic Jewel is set to start in the red on Saturday, but, like in the Underwood Stakes, when she was edged out by It’s A Dundeel, she has a 28-year hoodoo to over. Not only is Tristarc the last mare to win the Underwood, she is also the most recent female winner of the Caulfield Stakes.

Atlantic Jewel has followed the proven formula, however, with 14 of the past 30 winners having come through the Underwood Stakes, including Douro Valley, Whobegotyou, So You Think and Ocean Park in the past five years.

So You Think and Ocean Park both went on to win the Cox Plate and nine other Cox Plate winners from the past 30 years have come through the Caulfield Stakes. Green Moon, Foreteller and Atlantic Jewel’s stablemate Super Cool are the other Cox Plate contenders in the Caulfield Stakes.

In contrast, the Toorak Handicap has been of no real relevance to the Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup in the modern era with no Caulfield Cup winner having come through the 1600m event since Cole Diesel did the double in 1989 and Fields of Omagh (2003) is the only Cox Plate winner to have come through the Toorak in the past 30 years.

It has been a good race to those coming through the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in that time, though, with 16 Toorak winners since 1983 having also contested the 1400m Group 1 handicap at Caulfield.

Only six of those 16 placed in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, however, meaning the host of Toorak runners who finished unplaced in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes – including Linton, Luckygray, December Draw, Ferlax and Speediness – can turn it around.

Solzhenitsyn is the only one of the top three from this year’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes who has continued on to the Toorak and he will be striving to replicate last year, when he won the Toorak after finishing third in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.

Should be win, Solzhenitsyn will become the fifth multiple winner of the race but join Umrum (1999/2000) as the ones to do so since 1964.

Full fields for the day’s three Group 1s at Caulfield, plus the day’s other events, are available here