Three year olds are always difficult to rate as often their natural improvement varies so greatly from runner to runner. In the process of setting up my own list of Generic Ratings I need all the help I can get and one area I can turn to is the official handicapper and his ratings. The weights for the Special Harmony Super Vobis Handicap for 3yo fillies at Caulfield this weekend gives us an excellent clue as to what the handicapper thinks about some of the better class three years.In this race t

Three year olds are always difficult to rate as often their natural improvement varies so greatly from runner to runner. In the process of setting up my own list of Generic Ratings I need all the help I can get and one area I can turn to is the official handicapper and his ratings. The weights for the Special Harmony Super Vobis Handicap for 3yo fillies at Caulfield this weekend gives us an excellent clue as to what the handicapper thinks about some of the better class three years.

In this race the filly Headway (rated 99) has been allotted 62.5kg or 9.5kg over the limit. In the McNeil Stakes Tickets was shown to have a rating figure of 94 thus some calculations tells us if Headway and Tickets were in an open 3yo handicap Tickets would be carrying 2.5kg less than Headway (99-94/2) or 7kg over the limit. Consequently Starspangledbanner would have 4.5kg over the limit, Wanted +3.0kg and Come Hither +2.5kg . If you take it all a step further a perusal of the handicappers ratings in the Golden Rose in Sydney shows Phelan Ready is assessed at 105 or 3kg more than Headway thus would be carrying 65.5kg.

At this stage of my process I have not decided what the difference is between a 3yo open handicap and an open handicap for all ages. As I understand the official ratings template a 4yo and older horse rated 105 would receive 57.5kg in an open handicap (Group 5 if we call Listed races Group 4) thus a 3yo rated on 105 would receive the same. However during different stages of the year 3yo's receive an allowance starting at 2.5kg at this time of the year therefore I believe Phelan Ready would receive 55kg in a Group 5 race where the limit weight is 51kg .

On that basis any 3yo rated at 97 would receive the limit weight which would mean Headway would have 52kg in a Group 5 race (a normal open handicap). Although I haven't checked it I believe Headway, a filly, would also receive an allowance off Phelan Ready, a colt, of 1kg thus in this theoretical handicap would carry the limit weight. Now all of this is just a starting point ratings and weights wise using the handicappers opinion but it is actually up to me if I agree with the handicapper. Here's an example of where I will never agree with the handicapper.

In the Memsie Stakes the handicapper has Efficient rated at 119, El Segundo at 117, Viewed at 115 and Fiumicino at 113 which means El Segundo is 1kg inferior to Efficient, Viewed 2kg and Fiumicino 3kg. Now you can argue you all you like about El Segundo and Efficient but I cannot see Viewed as just 1kg inferior to El Segundo and as for Fiumicino (a wet tracker) being just 2kg inferior to El Segundo: no way at all. So, just taking the handicappers opinion at face value is NOT the way to go. The way to go is have a good look at each win of any contender or who did they beat home when beaten by a better galloper and decide on the value of the form lines thereafter.

I knew this was not going to be an easy task!!