September 14: Generic RatingsAs you know I am compiling a set of Generic Ratings where I allot a figure to each horse and all that has to be done is to subtract the allotted weight given by the official handicapper from my allotment and voila a rating is produced where we can compare all runners in a field. To make my assessment process a fraction easier I have divided the task into three sections: 3yo's, Mares and Open age (4yo and older) and I have also introduced 12 columns covering distances
September 14: Generic Ratings
As you know I am compiling a set of Generic Ratings where I allot a figure to each horse and all that has to be done is to subtract the allotted weight given by the official handicapper from my allotment and voila a rating is produced where we can compare all runners in a field. To make my assessment process a fraction easier I have divided the task into three sections: 3yo's, Mares and Open age (4yo and older) and I have also introduced 12 columns covering distances from 900m to 3200m. All of the figures are open to change as the carnivals in Sydney and Melbourne progress so I will not go into any great depth with the three year olds and the 4yo + except with the Mares section.
At present I have 20 mares in the list with my top five rated runners Hot Danish (0), Zarita (1), Typhoon Tracy (2.5), Ready To Lift (4) and Cats Whisker (4.5). The figures in the brackets are the rated kilos below Hot Danish therefore if Hot Danish had 61.0kg in a mares open handicap I would have Cats Whisker at 4.5kg less or 56.5kg. The next level include Annesong (not likely to improve), Madame Pedrille (improver), Miss Marielle (not sure about improvement) and Cerberus Gal (improver) and we will soon know who the real improvers will be. There are others like Moti, Estee, Miss Scarlatti, Miss Maren and Sparkling Satine that could either drop away or improve dramatically, as well.
I have 20 three year olds listed and 55 Open age horses thus making a total of 95 horses. I have not rushed into the assessments of the 4yo+ brigade as I wanted to wait until several of them had at least run twice this campaign or even a third run as per Whobegotyou. At this stage I have El Segundo as my top rated horse and before yesterday I had several runners fairly close together below the champ but after the easy win by Whobegotyou he has moved into clear second spot.
As you can tell this is quite an absorbing process and over the next few weeks I will be concentrating on rating each of the open age horses (the 3yo's can wait until the carnivals are over) in attempt to make sure I have a solid set of figures for the top rated runners. When I am happy I have the top open age runners in order I will merge the mares (I have most of them in order at present) but before that move I need to really decide the weight difference between the best mares and the best open class horses.
What will happen is that several of the mares such as Typhoon Tracy, Zarita and Hot Danish will meet the boys n some coming events. Guess who will have the telescope out watching their efforts?