It was a battle and the usual First Four frustrations surfaced but it wasn't until Race 7 in Perth when I surged to the front for a tiny profit. It would have been a very nice profit for the day percentage wise if Werd at 10/1 had won instead of Grand Nirvana at 4/1 but I am not complaining. On Saturday I discussed the 25,33,40, 50% combinations method which I am comfortable with as far as the number of runners but it is the amounts and the percentage returns via the Flexibet option I need to po

It was a battle and the usual First Four frustrations surfaced but it wasn't until Race 7 in Perth when I surged to the front for a tiny profit. It would have been a very nice profit for the day percentage wise if Werd at 10/1 had won instead of Grand Nirvana at 4/1 but I am not complaining. On Saturday I discussed the 25,33,40, 50% combinations method which I am comfortable with as far as the number of runners but it is the amounts and the percentage returns via the Flexibet option I need to ponder over. I spent two hours on Saturday night jiggling some figures into an Excel sheet and I shall do some more jiggling during the week to try and calculate which amounts I need to invest for a healthy return when I actually get a First Four using the combinations attack.

The other form of attack on the First Fours I have is the Roving Banker. What I like about this approach is that my key selection can run 1 2 3 or 4 (Newport ran fourth for me in the Cup and Melito second) and if I get the other three positions correct, in the right race, I can be involved in a result worth many thousands of dollars. Using the combinations approach I am starting to think, ever so slowly I might add, that I am restricting myself long term to dividends based on results around form horses. The result in Race 7 is a perfect example as the F4 was quite gettable form wise and paid a beautiful $805.50 for the dollar but in that race I was never going to get a better dividend unless Werd won and even then it may have peaked at $1500 or $1600. In the Brisbane Cup and the Stradbroke I at least had my two Roving Bankers come in and I was a contender in a race where the dividends were around $64000 and $53000. What in effect I am doing is staking a place bet which includes fourth position on my banker. If I load up in the other positions I am in the firing line BUT, and it is a big BUT, if I take too many other selections the outlay become astronomical.

For instance, if I take my A selection as the banker with 6 other horses I am taking 1 x 6 x 5 x 4 combinations ($120) times four = $480.(Remember as a Roving Banker I am taking this horse for 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th). If my A selection is $2.00 for the place with the extra chance for fourth it is like receiving $1.80 the place (I am just guessing - I haven't a clue how to work it out) so I need a collect of $480 x $1.80 = $864 for a reasonably fair collect, value wise. If I bet $48 on the First Four I will receive 10% of the dividend therefore the First Four needs to pay $8640 for me to collect $864. In a field of fourteen there is a fair chance a dividend of $8640 is possible so attempting to collect 10% is probably fair but I have a feeling 15% is more like it. In a field of 12 I will need to invest more and even more in a field of 10 and even more in a field of 8. Again I have to do some Excel work but this time for the Roving Bankers.