Although I have dabbled in the exotics in the past I have made it a bit of a mission to become much wiser in this area in 2010 and beyond, especially with trifectas and first fours. Over the Spring carnival I tackled a few races via the Flexibet option with a minimal loss. I should have done better, especially in the Emirates Stakes where I had the 40/1 winner in my A position, but due to not really studying just how many horses I should have had in the other positions I missed out around 2% of
Although I have dabbled in the exotics in the past I have made it a bit of a mission to become much wiser in this area in 2010 and beyond, especially with trifectas and first fours. Over the Spring carnival I tackled a few races via the Flexibet option with a minimal loss. I should have done better, especially in the Emirates Stakes where I had the 40/1 winner in my A position, but due to not really studying just how many horses I should have had in the other positions I missed out around 2% of an $80,000 dividend. I can live with that as I was just experimenting but this year I have developed a chart for the Trifectas and First Fours to pinpoint mathematically how many horse I should have in each position.
For instance, with trifectas I am aiming to collect a Flexibet dividend of around 10% each time I get a collect. The formula I have worked out shows me in a field size of 12 I should be taking 4 horses in the A position, 6 horses in the B position and 8 horse in the C position thus I have ABCD, ABCDEF, ABCDEFGH which, if I have it worked out correctly, means I have 4x5x6 or 120 combinations. To get 10% of the trifecta dividend I would bet $12 on those combinations. Extending the mathematics to THE big one, the Melbourne Cup, I have calculated 8 in the A position, 12 in the B position and 16 in the C position which has 1386 combinations calling for an outlay of $139. For the other big one, the Caulfield Cup, which usually has 18 runners, I have 6 in the A position, 9 in the B position and 12 in the C position calling for $48 worth of bets for the 480 combinations.
I have gone quite wide as while in the testing stage with smaller amounts I want to at least get a collect and conserve the bank more than anything else. Time will tell if I am going too wide. So far this year I am losing but I was very close to getting an excellent return in the Perth Cup, for both the trifecta AND the first four if the favourite, Lords Ransom, had run second but that's the punt. The tide will go my way with the right price on top and the favourite 2nd or 3rd or even 4th and then my calculator will go into overdrive.