It is official: I am seeking help about my punting. Before you all go "What!" just be aware there is a slight twist to my first sentence. There is no way I am giving up on the punt but I have to admit to being battered around the old head for quite a few months, since last Spring actually, with my attempts to make a few dollars out of Trifectas and First Fours. Although I am by no means a big bettor the experimenting with different approaches is adding up and is showing me losing for t

It is official: I am seeking help about my punting. Before you all go "What!" just be aware there is a slight twist to my first sentence. There is no way I am giving up on the punt but I have to admit to being battered around the old head for quite a few months, since last Spring actually, with my attempts to make a few dollars out of Trifectas and First Fours. Although I am by no means a big bettor the experimenting with different approaches is adding up and is showing me losing for the year even though my win and especially place bets as well as laying horses on Betfair are doing fine. I am thinking about starting an Exotics Anonymous group where other battered punters can call one another in times of temptation.

I guess the first thing I need to say is that I have been trying all sorts of methods of attack on both the Trifectas and First Fours and the toughest part has been deciding which approach is the best. I have tinkered with taking ABCD x ABCDEF x ABCDEFGH in big fields for trifectas but,of course,that's $120 at a pop and I am not outlaying that much when experimenting. I have found this is a tough way to go as you must get the winner in your first four, the second placegetter in your first six and third position in your top eight. By applying this in fields of 12 or less you will strike collects but the raw part of the pineapple shows the dividends need to pay something like $600 at least and with favourites or second favourites placing fairly regularly the chances of those dividends are slim. With this approach I have found you need to have the favourite and second favourite out of the A position and try for a healthy 7/1 or 8/1 plus winner but getting those good price winners is the task that needs defeating. In fields of 13 plus I think a fifth horse needs to be added to the A position thus seven for second and nine for third which totals 5x6x7 or $210 worth. Naturally, a Flexibet option needs to be incorporated.

When you try the First Fours with this approach is when you really start to squeeze the percentages. How many do you take for fourth? If we adhere to the 4x6x8 approach for the trifectas it seems 4x6x8x10 makes sense for the First Fours but at 4x5x6x7 we get $840 worth of combinations per try. In field sizes of 13 plus, by adding the extra horses, the calculation is ABCDE x ABCDEFG x ABCDEFGHI x ABCDEFGHIJK which works out at 5x6x7x9 or $1890 worth of combinations. If you decide you want 5% of the dividend for the Trifectas your bet will be $6 (12 runners or less) and $11 (13 runners or more) which is fine but for the First Fours we find 5% will be $840/20 = $42 and $1890/20 = $95. So far my experience, on the tougher races, has been that the First Four dividend will be about 7 times the Trifecta dividend but that depends on a sensible priced runner grabbing fourth spot.

On that rough basis if I divided my outlay on the First Fours by 7 the minimum bet on the 12 runners or less field would be $9 and at 13 runners or more it has to be $19 remembering that 1% is the lowest figure the TAB allows with it's Flexibet option. The issue is one of a) getting the damn collect and b) having it return value.Well,I have been betting similar amounts or more and my frustration point is just about there. Only recently I have been tinkering with the Roving Banker option (I think Americans call this "wheeling") where all my choice has to do is finish the first three or four and the other numbers fill the placings and fourth spot for the First Fours. I believe this is the way to go, at the moment, as it does give you the chance of striking the good priced winner and by having your value selection in the money as well a good dividend is on the cards.

Alas, yesterday, at Doomben, I risked Ortensia and Whobegotyou for the obvious reasons of their get back style and 10% of a nice $4000+ First Four went astray when I wheeled my A selection, Hot Danish, but left out the runnerup. Now if I had slipped Whobegotyou into contention (not hard to do)I would have received about 6/1 the place and fourth position as well for Hot Danish. In the long run I cannot lose with receiving odds like that about an 1/1 chance ($2.50 on Betfair eased some of the pain) for the place even allowing for the times my selection would run unplaced and I would miss out on the other needed positions. Food for thought, isn't it.

You know something. Give me to the end of the year with the wheeling option and put the Exotics Anonymous group on hold. There was a song years ago that had the words "they're coming to take me away ha ha ha ha" which may become my signature song.