Times can be a tricky conveyance in the horseracing game but if you are going to follow them in anyway you must use times on the same day as your guide. At Flemington last Saturday the Group 3 Aurie's Star Handicap was won by Elusive Touch but many punters believed Leica Larrikin should have won the race as the latter was held up at a couple of crucial stages. The sectionals for the last 200m show Elusive Touch was "walking" at 12.68 compared to Leica Larrikins 12.48. Normally 1200m se

Times can be a tricky conveyance in the horseracing game but if you are going to follow them in anyway you must use times on the same day as your guide. At Flemington last Saturday the Group 3 Aurie's Star Handicap was won by Elusive Touch but many punters believed Leica Larrikin should have won the race as the latter was held up at a couple of crucial stages. The sectionals for the last 200m show Elusive Touch was "walking" at 12.68 compared to Leica Larrikins 12.48. Normally 1200m sectionals are better than those at 1400m but if you look at the sectionals for the race won by Moudre you will find his run was excellent, if you believe in times.

Moudre's fastest 200m split was 11.25 from the 400m to the 200m to put the race away in a twinkling of an eye while it was Leica Larrikin's 11.14 between the 600m and the 400m that was the best in that race. On those raw times if Leica Larrikin and Moudre were together at the 500m mark you would expect LL to just win the ensuing next 200m split but the problem normally would be that LL would be further back in the run. In that instance he has to run a faster sectional just to catch up and then an even faster sectional to run past Moudre.

What the times suggest to me is that Moudre and Leica Larrikin are both better than Elusive Touch and for Moudre to run a time just slower than Leica Larrikin, over 1400m ,indicates he is quite a respectable horse. However, when we consider Leica Larrikin was unsuited over 1200m and would be better at 1400m and 1600m you wonder if Leica Larrikin is going to be something special this campaign.

All the two races have shown me, timewise, is that Elusive Touch was lucky to win and next start I will be wary about his chances. However, what times don't always show is the natural improvement lightly raced horses can make, especially under the care of a top trainer like Mark Kavanagh.. All of the above highlights why horseracing analysis is often an educated guess and why, in the finish, you must make sure you get a price equal to or above a fair price, all things considered. Now what that price should be is another part of the conundrum we punters have to solve.