Today keen punters face a conundrum in the wfa 1100m Bletchingly Stakes when they have to decide the order in which to rate the top class runners, Shoot Out and VelociteaMathematically there is 5.05% difference in price between Shoot Out ($4.40) and Velocitea ($3.60) and cash wise if you backed them to win $100 you would outlay $29 and $38 respectively.The form guide shows Shoot Out did not win in his only campaign until his fourth race start when he won at Group 2 level over 1200m defeating Mor

Today keen punters face a conundrum in the wfa 1100m Bletchingly Stakes when they have to decide the order in which to rate the top class runners, Shoot Out and Velocitea
Mathematically there is 5.05% difference in price
between Shoot Out ($4.40) and Velocitea ($3.60) and cash wise if you backed them to win $100 you would outlay $29 and $38 respectively.

The form guide shows Shoot Out did not win in his only campaign until his fourth race start when he won at Group 2 level over 1200m defeating More Than Great and Viking Legend. On face value he has the job ahead of him to win today except for the fact he just blossomed with every run and on bland assessment he is a better horse than Velocitea.

Velocitea won first up last preparation defeating Valentine Miss by 0.1L when carrying 1kg more and went on to win at Group 1 level, after 43 days, when defeating the above average Catapulted At her previous first up run she ran second to Jaalippy beaten 1.3L at level weights. Even the connections of Valentine Miss and Jaalippy would agree they are just below the top rung so this is where the riddle of this race starts. Which of the two is the better bet?

On distance and track ability it is Velocitea and you would also think she would be ahead of Shoot Out in running. However, Shoot Out has an extraordinary finish and if Velocitea is a fraction underdone watch out. The choice the punter always has to make has to make is between class (Shoot Out) or distance (Velocitea) when this type of occurrence happens.

To solve the problem you can back them both at the equivalent odds of about $2.05 but you have to ask yourself is that value for two horses that have bigger fish to fry later in the season. There are much better $2.05 chances coming up this Spring so I will have to make a betting choice. I choose Shoot Out because I suspect it will drift (= value)and Velocitea will be backed. If I can get 5/1 Shoot Out or better I will take the chance and at the 600m mark it will be considered just a chance. If he loses then I will just set aside a Shoot Out column and back him this campaign until I collect enough to recover any previous lost monies plus a small profit to boot.

Good luck whichever way you go.