Here's A Conundrum for You.VIGOR. I mentioned his great run in my blog a few days back. Missed the cut in last year's Melbourne Cup because of a bureaucratic mishmash.Ran third in the Caulfield Cup to the very classy Viewed.After Saturday, I thought he'd be warm as warm for the first Cup.Maybe $12 or so.The TAB has him at $17 (16/1).A corporate bookmaker whom I greatly respect has $18 (17/1).Another very big bookie has $18 too.And two others have $26 (25/1).Now I have to say that 25/1 seems to m
Here's A Conundrum for You.
VIGOR.
I mentioned his great run in my blog a few days back.
Missed the cut in last year's Melbourne Cup because of a bureaucratic mishmash.
Ran third in the Caulfield Cup to the very classy Viewed.
After Saturday, I thought he'd be warm as warm for the first Cup.
Maybe $12 or so.
The TAB has him at $17 (16/1).
A corporate bookmaker whom I greatly respect has $18 (17/1).
Another very big bookie has $18 too.
And two others have $26 (25/1).
Now I have to say that 25/1 seems to me to be very, very generous.
And yet, their pricesetters are amongst the best in the world.
Are they balancing their books, or strangling their markets on other horses? I really don't know.
It's one of those delicious dilemmas we punters face all the time, and never so much as at Cups Time.
It's always your money until you put it on the table and so I offer no advice on this one.
But isn't it interesting?
There's nine points' difference between 16/1 and 25/1. That's another 9/16 onto the price.
More than half again, in other words.
Bet $100 at $17 and you win $1600.
Bet $100 at $26 and you win $2500.
An extra 56% on the $17.
I leave it to you to think about.
We can probably learn something from it.