The HKSAR Chief Executive's Cup has recently lost its status as a showcase for emerging talents, but that should change on Sunday and Tony Cruz-trained Peniaphobia can emerge victorious in the season's traditional opening feature, reports Racing Post HK.
In the past, the 1,200m cup saw horses like The Duke, Lucky Nine, Able Prince and Enthused take the trophy on their way to becoming Group One players, but that gloss has been missing in the last three runnings.
The 2011 winner, gallant eight-year-old Joy And Fun was already a Group One galloper and thought to be in decline before rejuvenating his career in the race, while Supreme Win (2012) and Cerise Cherry (2013) were just holding their levels.
But this year's race has some depth and some upside, with Peniaphobia (Matthew Chadwick) and Divine Ten (Douglas Whyte) lightly-raced horses headed for much better things.
Charles The Great (Christian Reith) and Helene Spirit are well explored and will struggle at the weights but have a score on the board, while Tour De Force (Karis Teetan), Golden Harvest (Joao Moreira) and Smart Volatility (Howard Cheng Yue-tin) have the talent to claim a decent race with light handicaps.
The cup will be Peniaphobia's first run at 1,200m but that looks no issue given the way he races and the 113 pounds on his back from a good draw.
Most of Peniaphobia's racing has been up the straight, where he has won twice, but 1,200m around a circle course looks more suitable. Sha Tin straight races are run flat out from the halfway mark, dulling a horse's finish, but Peniaphobia closed out in sensational splits the only time he went around turns at Happy Valley.
He was able to sit back there off a strong speed and ideally that would be the scenario but this is an odd sprint with an ambiguous pace.
Bullish Friend (gate one), Peniaphobia (two) and Smart Volatility (five) have led at different times and Best Eleven in gate four has blinkers going on, while Divine Ten has speed but is drawn to their outside.
The leader, and the speed that will be set by the leader, are both question marks, but Chadwick has the luxury of jumping Peniaphobia out and seeing what unfolds around him while Whyte probably has to commit to one path early - back or forward.