Here we go again as a new racing season starts. Usually at this time of year there is a deadly concoction of the fit winter runners battling it out with the unfit Spring candidates. I have lost track of the number of top class horses over the years that have bit the dust at short odds in August and for a good part of September to miraculously rise phoenix like and win a top race in October and/ or November. Just sit tight and do not worry if you miss a win from a good horse, you want to follow,
Here we go again as a new racing season starts. Usually at this time of year there is a deadly concoction of the fit winter runners battling it out with the unfit Spring candidates. I have lost track of the number of top class horses over the years that have bit the dust at short odds in August and for a good part of September to miraculously rise phoenix like and win a top race in October and/ or November. Just sit tight and do not worry if you miss a win from a good horse, you want to follow, at short odds because that horse will be better odds soon enough and may well line your wallet with plenty of moolah anyway with less money risked.
A horse like Bel Mer fits the bill this weekend. I am not saying she cannot win the Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield as she has won first up at her last two campaigns but there are bigger fish to fry at Moonee Valley later this month in the Manikato Stakes not to mention a race like The Salinger on Derby Day. There is also the doubt on the track conditions as she has 0 from 6 on dead tracks with only a close 2nd to Belong To Many to brag about. She is quoted at $3.30 for the Bletchingly Stakes and at this stage I am prepared to risk her at that short quote.
Just the same you might remember I had my suspicions about I Am Invincible two weeks ago and he just beat Gran Sasso and ended up splattering egg on my face. However the punt is quite often about elimination and if you have theories or honest doubts you must let the short priced ones run against you. The reward is when you get it right a good priced winner could be the reward. I found the 10/1 winner Palmyra Bay last Saturday at Fannie Bay simply by eliminating the riskier propositions.
I have already located my best bet across Australia: it leapt out from the pages of "The Winning Post" and said "I am the one". I will let you know its name on Saturday during the podcast.