TRAINER Ciaron Maher expects his popular stayer Moudre will have to run and win three times in 13 days if he is to take out the $6 million Melbourne Cup, reports The Age (www.theage.com.au).It says: The Warrnambool-trained five-year-old is likely to run as favourite in tomorrow's $225,000 Geelong Cup (2400 metres), but even if Moudre is to win his first race for the campaign, he will still need to win the Lexus Stakes three days before the Melbourne Cup to claim a spot.In the wake of Descarado's

TRAINER Ciaron Maher expects his popular stayer Moudre will have to run and win three times in 13 days if he is to take out the $6 million Melbourne Cup, reports The Age (www.theage.com.au).

It says: The Warrnambool-trained five-year-old is likely to run as favourite in tomorrow's $225,000 Geelong Cup (2400 metres), but even if Moudre is to win his first race for the campaign, he will still need to win the Lexus Stakes three days before the Melbourne Cup to claim a spot.

In the wake of Descarado's 1.5-kilogram penalty yesterday for winning last Saturday's Caulfield Cup, Maher said that simply passing the elimination clause with Moudre was no longer his only concern tomorrow.

''We have to get into the [elimination] list for a start and then hope for a big penalty, but it looks as though we'll still have to win [the Lexus] on the Saturday to get in.''

If Moudre wins tomorrow, he will pass the Melbourne Cup's first ballot clause for prizemoney and distance, but even with the same penalty of 1.5 given to Descarado, he is still likely to be well outside the top 24-ranked horses when final Melbourne Cup declarations are taken on Saturday week.

But Maher said that Moudre, who has disappointed slightly at his past two efforts to qualify, was ready to turn in a supreme effort tomorrow.

''The 10 days between runs will be ideal for him because we missed a start in the Turnbull Stakes and so had to go three weeks between runs and that told on him last run [when fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes].

''He's had four runs this campaign and they have [been] well spaced. He seems to have come on really well. It's been a smooth preparation and he's got a good base [of fitness] on him.''

Moudre prefers the spacious Flemington circuit so Maher is looking forward to his first run at the sizeable Geelong track after two failures at Caulfield where he seemed to lose ground on the corners.