Far too many punters shy away from favourites yet they offer the punter a better opportunity for profit making than the so called "value" horses. Value horses typically are 5/1 plus and for some punters horses must be 10/1 or longer before they are considered for betting purposes. What has to be realized is the shorter the price the less the punter loses per dollar invested hence it makes sense to seek bets in an area of less volatility.If a study was to be made which detailed 500 runs
Far too many punters shy away from favourites yet they offer the punter a better opportunity for profit making than the so called "value" horses. Value horses typically are 5/1 plus and for some punters horses must be 10/1 or longer before they are considered for betting purposes. What has to be realized is the shorter the price the less the punter loses per dollar invested hence it makes sense to seek bets in an area of less volatility.
If a study was to be made which detailed 500 runs for every price range from $1.10 to $101 plus it would show, barring minor variances, an amazingly linear set of profit and loss figures. I mention profit because in some studies I have seen over the years the shortest priced favourites, that is, those at $1.30 or less show a profit yet those are the exact horses Mr and Mrs Public try to avoid by citing they are not "value".
Where a mug punter can turn the corner and become an astute punter is in their assessment of whether a favourite is a true favourite. Broadly speaking the favourite has passed the overall scrutiny of the punting public but as good as the public is overall it still makes mistakes. By the way if you don't think the public is all that good then try and pick 30% winners race after race all year long over all sorts of distances, classes and track conditions. In order to increase the 30% figure the punter must delve deeper into the form lines and start eliminating dodgy favourites.
So what constitutes a false favourite? Clearly lack of fitness must be the leading reason and pre race the first clue we punters have is the date of the horses last start. The worst dates are those for first uppers and the higher the racedate number the riskier proposition the favourite becomes. All previous runs around first up runs must be evaluated especially in relation to distance. A first up win over 1000m is not the same as a first up attempt at 1200m. Any favourite first up at 1200m who has only won at 1000m, or even 1100m, is a false favourite. Keep away from them and you will save money.