Some weekends even a desperate desperado of the punt like yours truly struggles to find races to become enthused about, punting wise. This weekend finds me really stretching to find races where my confidence is high bar one race at Moonee Valley. Normally this is not a bad thing as I can attempt to crunch that race big time money wise but what stops me is past experience. Over many, many years the plodding stayers that have haunted Moonee Valley racecourse have seen many a punter hang their head

Some weekends even a desperate desperado of the punt like yours truly struggles to find races to become enthused about, punting wise. This weekend finds me really stretching to find races where my confidence is high bar one race at Moonee Valley. Normally this is not a bad thing as I can attempt to crunch that race big time money wise but what stops me is past experience. Over many, many years the plodding stayers that have haunted Moonee Valley racecourse have seen many a punter hang their heads in shame at having fallen for "that mongrel again" and I fear I am about to fall again. The race is the third on the program, the 2500m Open handicap headed in the weights by Daka's Gem. I am very confident that the two best chances are Elmore and Pass Me By: quinella horses the last time they met.

I have massive respect for Daka's Gem and Sentire on his day but buried in the ruck are some runners like China Causeway and Betwixt, in particular, who could improve enough to toss my most likely pair. In the finish it will be an issue of price but at the moment it really worries me that the best looking race, form wise, at Moonee Valley is a long distance race.

There certainly are better races on the card but how do I know the levels of fitness of all runners that are first up? I don't so instead of guessing for solid amounts of money I will guess for very low amounts and at odds to boot.
Perhaps Race 3 at Randwick will be THE one because that race looks the best, form and fitness wise, at that venue. I have to delve into all the runs in more detail tomorrow and hopefully I will have at least one race to pin my huge hopes on. Normally a wfa race is one of the better options but the Warwick Stakes, as far as I am concerned, revolves around the fitness of Vision And Power: if fit he wins but I am not sure so I have to play it safe unless the price becomes irresistible.

A look at Perth shows the best horse at the meeting is Megatic in the wfa Goodwood Sprint and obviously the best race as well. At this stage of the night I have not had a chance to look at all the first up runs of Megatic: that will be my first job tomorrow morning.
There is no doubt this time of the year playing safe is the long time best option. Make sure you think the same way because if you don't and lose money on unfit horses then you have only yourself to blame.

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