My revision of the Plan A selections of the Pensioner Plan is complete. As you will be aware I logged 500 selections of the original "wildcat" selections and at the end of the record keeping to say the selections were a disaster would be an understatement. The 500 races yielded 96 winners and miserable returns of 389.80 however part of the Pensioner Plan experiment is to try and find out which weak areas are needed for elimination.I constructed an Excel file which looked at Last Form F

My revision of the Plan A selections of the Pensioner Plan is complete. As you will be aware I logged 500 selections of the original "wildcat" selections and at the end of the record keeping to say the selections were a disaster would be an understatement. The 500 races yielded 96 winners and miserable returns of 389.80 however part of the Pensioner Plan experiment is to try and find out which weak areas are needed for elimination.

I constructed an Excel file which looked at Last Form Figure, Days Since Last Raced, Sex, Career Runs, Runs From a Spell and Limit Weights. Three areas stood out as quite poor performers. There were 31 horses on the Limit Weight (lowest weight before claims) for returns of 10.50, 88 runners that were 2nd up for returns of 30.45 units and 72 runners under the heading of sex yielded returns of 41 units. Sex was composed of mares versus males, fillies versus males and 3yo's versus 4yo's and older.

Add the three together and we find 191 runners for collects of 82.45 which is quite amazing as by eliminating them we find 309 remaining bets for returns of 307.45, based on Best Fluctuation. Naturally, this is a classic case of back fitting where the system builder simply eliminates the negatives and the positives become the system to follow. This is exactly what I am going to do however before I will be convinced of anything I require another 500 selections as a post tester of not only the new rules but the old ones as well.

Now, as I go along I will add a third side to all of this and that is where I intend to "attack" the new rules selections with my own form processes. What this then means is we have three plans to follow. Plan 1: the original, Plan 2, the new rules and Plan 3, my attack of Plan 2. My hypothesis is that Plan 3 will end up the best because I will be adding the sort of intuitive, deeper analysis of each runners form that a simple system cannot perform. If at the end of 500 Plan 3 selections a profit eventuates or a minor loss then I will have a plan I can believe in and, of course, help supplement my pension down the track.

By the way, I have not forgotten the staking plan side of all of this but I need time to set the selections into a spreadsheet and then calculate the figures. This will have to wait as the carnivals are upon us but I will work on it gradually and provide the results asap. The staking plan will still groan under the pressure of bad runs but at least it will not be as brutal as the two I have logged during this experiment. It is going to be a long process to notch up 500 Plan 3 selections from this weekend, October 3, but this time next year we will have a massive amount of data to interpret and the resultant data will be worth the effort.

It is time to tackle this weekend's form with gusto so see you Saturday. Be aware, please, that I am still having problems with producing the podcast (might be the hardware) so I will produce the blog instead. Sorry about this but you all know how sweet computers/programmes and hardware can be at times. The important thing is to get the selections to you and hopefully jag another 48/1 winner (I wish) along the way.