Oct 3Pensioner Plan SelectionsPlan 1: Wildcat Selections (never to be backed: baseline selections only)RANDWICK 4-10-1-13-2-2-5-5-5-3FLEMINGTON 2-2-9-5-2-1-11-10-5BELMONT PARK 1-4-1-9-3-1-5-1DOOMBEN 6-3-2-11-2-8-1-8MORPHETTVILLE 8-2-1-7-2-1-7-1Plan 2: Modified Selections with System Rules (Sex, Limit Wt, First & 2nd Up)Back them at what you consider value: break square selections: handy for anchor in exoticsRANDWICK Race 3 No 1 RothesayRace 5 No 2 More JoyousRace 6 No 2 Viking LegendRace 9 N

Oct 3
Pensioner Plan Selections
Plan 1: Wildcat Selections (never to be backed: baseline selections only)
RANDWICK 4-10-1-13-2-2-5-5-5-3
FLEMINGTON 2-2-9-5-2-1-11-10-5
BELMONT PARK 1-4-1-9-3-1-5-1
DOOMBEN 6-3-2-11-2-8-1-8
MORPHETTVILLE 8-2-1-7-2-1-7-1

Plan 2: Modified Selections with System Rules (Sex, Limit Wt, First & 2nd Up)
Back them at what you consider value: break square selections: handy for anchor in exotics
RANDWICK
Race 3 No 1 Rothesay
Race 5 No 2 More Joyous
Race 6 No 2 Viking Legend
Race 9 No 5 Gold Trail
Race 10 No 3 Madame Pedrille
FLEMINGTON
Race 2 No 2 Tribunal
Race 6 No 1 Majestic Music
Race 7 No 11 Predatory Pricer
BELMONT PARK
Race 1 No 1 Friars Touch
Race 2 No 4 Brunello
Race 3 No 1 Kid Choisir
Race 5 No 3 Ten Aces
Race 6 No 1 On The Warpath
Race 7 No 5 Vain Raider
Race 8 No 1 Grey Monarch
DOOMBEN
Race 1 No 6 Ulladulla
Race 3 No 2 Sneaky Long
Race 5 No 2 Beartracker
Race 6 No 8 Joint Chiefs
Race 7 No 1 Pertinence
MORPHETTVILLE
Race 2 No 2 Rebel Truce
Race 3 No 1 Ascolti
Race 4 No 7 Infatuation
Race 5 No 2 Satara
Race 6 No 1 Keltah

Plan 3: Plan 1 selections that pass all my strict criteria: back them if value is there: I will be at $1.70=> for the place if available, otherwise for win
RANDWICK
Race 5 No 2 Viking Legend
Race 6 No 2 More Joyous
FLEMINGTON
Nil
BELMONT PARK
Race 3 No 1 Kid Choisir
DOOMBEN
Race 7 No 1 Pertinence
MORPHETTVILLE
Nil

TRAINERS
MPRICE
Flemington
Race 2 No 2 Tribunal (worried about formlines, no value), No 9 Danesearch (small bet)
Race 3 No 9 Weasley (rise in class concern, no value)
Race 6 No 6 Silkyanna, No 11 Prevetable (both small bets)
Race 8 No 4 Light Fantastic (nice bet at sensible odds: can sprint well 1st up)
Race 9 No 5 Rightfully Yours (good horse: fair bet in hard race) No 8 Raheeb (terrible barrier draw but good horse and good odds): Why not the quinella, exacta?

JPRIDE
Randwick
Race 4 No 13 Miss Marielle (distance query but races near pace and will get soft run again: just a matter of price)
Race 9 No 11 Black Prince (small bet)
Race 10 No 13 Patronyme (good bet)

WFA/SET WTS/SWPenalties: Best Horses (would be top weight if this was a handicap): Forget recent form with this type: back them at sensible odds
Randwick
Race 3 No 1 Rothesay
Race 4 No 1 Nom De Jeu
Race 5 No 1 More Joyous
Race 6 No 1 Onemorenomore
Race 10 No 4 Moti
Flemington
Race 3 No 1 Tickets
Race 5 No 2 Hot Danish
Race 6 No 1 Majestic Music
Race 7 No 3 Maldivian
Race 8 No 1 All Silent

Just to reiterate:
Plan 1: just a bunch of selections based on the best last start form horse in the first three lines of betting in "The Sportsman". You will NOT win backing them all.

Plan 2: I have eliminated mares versus males, fillies versus males, 3yo's versus older horses, first up and second up a runners, first race starters and horses on the limit weight. My past 500 Plan 1 selections (I called them Plan A previously) show the above horses are problem runners and looking at them you would have to admit, bar the odd exceptions like Makybe Diva and Sunline, deleting them makes sense. This is a roughly break square area.

Plan 3: This is where I go through the Plan 2 selections by eliminating those with form lines I do not like or older horses that win every now and then or get back types that need luck: it's a mish mash but generally speaking you will have these selections as horses that race on the pace or lead, usually, that are well fancied. They will do well and it is a matter of YOU deciding your price limitations and how you back them. Price/value is clearly in the eye of the beholder.

This is a long process but long term I believe the benefits will be there firstly by way of studying the results and deleting bad areas, as per above, and secondly highlighting the better areas. The study of the first 500 revealed a couple of very good areas but the sample figures are nowhere near anything sensible so time will sort them out. At the top of everything there is the staking plan part of all of this. I have already shown you how dramatically the bets rise when the selections are terrible. My next foray into the staking will be on the break square selections (those left after the eliminations I have mentioned in the Plan 2 rules). I will work on them over the next few weeks.

Good luck today

Roman Koz