A major part of the punt involves risk. This is not ground breaking news but the punters who availed themselves of the $7.60 available on Betfair for Shoot Out last Saturday felt quite vindicated when they defied all the risk factors to collect the cash. This weekend risk raises its head again when punters have to weigh up the relative chances of Love Conquers All and Danleigh in the 1200m wfa Missile Stakes this Saturday.Is the pre post price of $1.70 for Love Conquers All worth taking when com
A major part of the punt involves risk. This is not ground breaking news but the punters who availed themselves of the $7.60 available on Betfair for Shoot Out last Saturday felt quite vindicated when they defied all the risk factors to collect the cash. This weekend risk raises its head again when punters have to weigh up the relative chances of Love Conquers All and Danleigh in the 1200m wfa Missile Stakes this Saturday.
Is the pre post price of $1.70 for Love Conquers All worth taking when compared to $4.20 available for Danleigh? Last start LCA defeated Hay List by 0.8L on a slow track in a run where, at the weights, LCA rated 1.5kg better. At his next start Hay List absolutely slaughtered the most promising Pinwheel who went on to win the Ramornie at Gosford his next start. There can be no denying the class of Hay List hence LCA must also be highly rated. There are no gold stars for working that out.
Danleigh was beaten first up last preparation on a heavy track 1.1L by McClintock and 0.1L by Centennial Park in what was described as a pleasing run. Second up over 1400m ,but this time on a good track, he showed his superiority to just beat Rangirangdoo and Palacio De Crystal by 1,2L. Looking through Danleighs heavy track form it would be silly to suggest he cannot win however his best runs under off conditions at this class level have been on slow or better tracks. The heavy 9 suggested for tomorrow is, pardon the pun, a real dampener for Danleighs chances.
If you were backing LCA to win $100 your outlay would be $100/0.7 = $142 and for Danleigh you would be accountable for $100/3.2 = $32. Classwise LCA is rated at 99 while Danleigh is 118 or 19 points or 8.5kg so Danleigh has over 5.5L start class wise. As they straighten I am fairly confident LCA will be 5L in front of Danleigh therefore the class difference is negated, to a certain extent. When you weigh up $142 versus $32 you are talking about quite a difference which, at the prices on offer today, has me suggesting the smaller bet on Danleigh is where the value lies.
At this stage of LCA career I am prepared to suggest $1.70 is not worth the risk however a three lengths win would not surprise me at all. However, if you punt based on what wouldn't surprise you at $1.70 I think long term you will have your monetary back against the wall.