TAB Sportsbet's first markets are up for the Australian Derby, so in which progressive three-year-olds does the value reside? At this stage I simply can't go past Victoria Derby runner-up INDUNA, at what appears to be a most luxurious price of $17. This son of Elusive Quality and the excellent staying mare Camarena could not have been more unlucky in the 2500m Flemington classic, buffeted from pillar to post before just failing to run down Sangster, who had pinched a winning break whilst the Dar
TAB Sportsbet's first markets are up for the Australian Derby, so in which progressive three-year-olds does the value reside? At this stage I simply can't go past Victoria Derby runner-up INDUNA, at what appears to be a most luxurious price of $17. This son of Elusive Quality and the excellent staying mare Camarena could not have been more unlucky in the 2500m Flemington classic, buffeted from pillar to post before just failing to run down Sangster, who had pinched a winning break whilst the Darley runner was attempting to start his run unimpeded. It was simply a huge run and he should have won easily. Induna ran second-last of 12 first-up in the Hobartville and will probably run ingloriously in the Randwick Guineas tomorrow, but as soon as he gets to 2000m+ will really start to hit his straps. In the lead-up to the Victoria Derby, he won his maiden at Gosford over 2100m by over 6 lengths before destroying an average bunch in the 2200m by 3.5L running away. I am a big fan of this gelding and look forward to seeing how his preparation unfolds as the distances increase.
My second pick has to be gun Kiwi filly SILENT ACHIEVER ($9). I think Roger James has a truly special horse on his hands here with this daughter of O'Reilly (what a fantastic sire of stayers O'Reilly is!), and am very confident she will be the one to beat in anything she contests this autumn. She brained the boys in the New Zealand Derby and was too good for Randwick Guineas contender Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas. SILENT ACHIEVER is 5 wins from 7 starts and will give it a mighty shake should she head to the Derby. The New Zealand form generally stands up in these autumn races, too.
The wraps on LASER HAWK ($13) are big and I think he could shape as a genuine Derby contender. I do have slight doubts about his stamina (Artie Schiller?) but from what I've seen so far, he might just be top-class. Derbies and Oaks are often won on sheer class alone, so definitely keep this hulking half to champion middle distance galloper Desert War safe.
I've also got a bit of time for Bede Murray's DARCI BE GOOD ($26) and think he might be in store for a nice preparation. He was excellent behind Doctor Doom in the Spring Champion over 2000m last October and is another that will put his best foot forward over those longer trips.
For a roughie, I'll throw in ETHIOPIA ($51). We'll see how he goes in the Alistair Clark at Moonee Valley tonight, but Pat Carey certainly hasn't been afraid to target the AJC Derby in the past and I think the big one could definitely be on the son of Helenus' agenda. This gelding is only very lightly raced, with just two starts to his name to date, but the manner in which he graduated from a third in a Sale maiden to run a competitive third in the G2 Autumn Classic over 1800m at Caulfield suggests better things might be in store. Carey is clearly adept at getting the best out of sons of Helenus (Cedarburg; Ulundi) and Ethiopia is certainly worth a speculator at those odds.
EARLY SELECTIONS:
1. INDUNA ($17)
2. SILENT ACHIEVER ($9)
3. DARCI BE GOOD ($26)