The KISS PrincipleKeep it simple, er... stupid... and people will understand you. Make it difficult to follow and they probably won't. And they won't stay around to see it through, either.Working on this principle, I'm staying right with the most basic advice for this big racing weekend and the next couple:Keep to your senses.You saw the last two Melbourne Cup winners return recently. Both ran bottlers. Neither will be fully wound up. They may well fail to flatter next time out.Today you'll see
The KISS Principle
Keep it simple, er... stupid... and people will understand you. Make it difficult to follow and they probably won't. And they won't stay around to see it through, either.
Working on this principle, I'm staying right with the most basic advice for this big racing weekend and the next couple:
Keep to your senses.
You saw the last two Melbourne Cup winners return recently. Both ran bottlers. Neither will be fully wound up. They may well fail to flatter next time out.
Today you'll see the winner of the Cox Plate return. Good first-upper, but this is NOT Moonee Valley.
No wins at this track and no wins at this distance.
It's his home track but in three tries he's placed once. Just a third, at that.
And there's a three year old at unbackable odds in another race. Of course she's the potential winner but there are three, maybe four, very good ones amongst her eight opponents. We don't know enough yet!
We may after this weekend, but even that isn't set in stone. Matter of fact, there's one in the race I'm having a small something on at (I hope) 25/1 or so. Finds trouble. Might have won the Golden Slipper with a clear run. Decided to go home early at his last start and ran off.
He may not win. They don't often at those odds. But my KISS philosophy says I have to look at recovering my outlays on the last two runs when I backed him. If I miss out, well, I've been wrong before.
And I'll be wrong again. But I won't die wondering, and at those odds I can risk a small flutter. Either way I'll learn something from that race and it shouldn't cost me much.
I've been watching the betting for the past twelve hours and there are lots of opinions in the various events: several horses are being supported in most races in both Sydney and Melbourne. Keep it simple... watch and learn.
By the way, on this subject, I received an email during the week asking for my views on the ten most likely to be placegetters for this year's Melbourne Cup. I answered that:
(a) the weights only came out this week.
(b) there are more than 200 entries.
(c) only perhaps one in ten of these will start.
(d) while I could maybe nominate 40 that have better chances than the other 200-plus, to eliminate any of those would be difficult.
It's very hard. Complicated.
And I do so much like simple...
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