Some More Thoughts on SpecialisingPerhaps distance is a major key. Is staying a great spectacle that the average punter cannot afford?If you get serious about restricting the number of races you try to win, I wonder if you have a game plan. Remember this: You're not trying to restrict the number of races you DO win, just the number you actually bet on.After watching the Sydney Cup, and doing my money on Divine Rebel and Mr. Tipsy, and what's more being beaten by an eight-year-old, I started to w
Some More Thoughts on Specialising
Perhaps distance is a major key. Is staying a great spectacle that the average punter cannot afford?
If you get serious about restricting the number of races you try to win, I wonder if you have a game plan. Remember this: You're not trying to restrict the number of races you DO win, just the number you actually bet on.
After watching the Sydney Cup, and doing my money on Divine Rebel and Mr. Tipsy, and what's more being beaten by an eight-year-old, I started to wonder even more about Australia's fascination with stayers. If money is the only consideration (and it sure beats whatever is running second!) then let's establish a handful of criteria that might help us along this road:
1. Ignore all races contested over further than 1500 metres.
2. Ignore all races run over less than 1100 metres ( these are death traps).
3. Consider only the five inside barriers.
4. Consider only course and distance winners .
5. Consider only horses which ran first, second or third at their previous start.
6. Consider only horses in the prepost market between $3 and $ 10 inclusive.
My thinking here was to look for horses which knew the journey and were proven over it, had recent form, were thought to be in the market but at a reasonable price, were drawn well (and better drawn than the vast majority), and of course were essentially in sprint races.
Looking at the meeting I just alluded to above, I had to go through to the last two races to identify any contenders. These were Danleigh and Noble Edict. Noble Edict ended up not qualifying because it had run nowhere at its last start, and that was before a spell. It won and paid $18 on the TAB, so I guess there's an argument somewhere there against Rule 5. However, I'm looking for specialisation and security, and the other one was also victorious, starting at $8.
It was a Group One race, too, so maybe there's more still for your specialisation. It's a starting point. One bet, one win. I look forward to your thoughts on where it might lead.