The Melbourne Cup- Some Thoughts.We'll all have a lash at the Cup. Capital letter for that one. It's THE Cup, after all. The one everyone wants to win.And the one we punters all have to try our luck with.Luck, and not necessarily just judgement alone. Of course luck's involved.But we're in front of the great unwashed out there because we have the knowledge. We know what this game is about. So we should have an edge.Will we exploit that edge? Can we exploit it?Sometimes we can.This year is no dif
The Melbourne Cup- Some Thoughts.
We'll all have a lash at the Cup. Capital letter for that one. It's THE Cup, after all. The one everyone wants to win.
And the one we punters all have to try our luck with.
Luck, and not necessarily just judgement alone. Of course luck's involved.
But we're in front of the great unwashed out there because we have the knowledge. We know what this game is about. So we should have an edge.
Will we exploit that edge? Can we exploit it?
Sometimes we can.
This year is no different. Something may completely surprise us and destroy all our plans. So be it, it happens.
But not that often these days. Last year, for example, the 40/1 winner had won the Brisbane Cup and was trained by Bart Cummings. There was evidence if we knew where to look, This year we've got the last two winners of the Cup. But they have champions' weights to haul around. There's the rub.
The Master has at least three in the final firing line. Several trainers of big race winners in the past two to three years also have runners. They can train a horse to win, don't you worry about that.
And there are several of the world's best riders engaged. Men and women who ride for a living week in, week out, And they win plenty. Most, in fact.
Now we know all that. So we're ahead. A lot of the money that goes on next Tuesday will be what I call mug money. Sorry, I don't wish them luck. We're supposed to be the ones who know, and in more years than not we ought to be able to fine the Cup field down and eliminate maybe half of it. Sure, we can be wrong, but we should have a better chance than the mug punters! Or what's it all about?
With that in mind, we can watch the machinations of the various trainers from now to Tuesday morning: a couple of borderline qualifiers are genuine shortlist chances. Will the trainer(s) take the risk of making the final 24 or will they run their charges on Saturday? As punters, we must also be aware that if a borderliner wins well on Saturday, then he won't be ANYWHERE NEAR the price he is now for the Cup. So do we back him now, or wait? Decisions, decisions. If a trainer is clearly taking the risk, and not entering a borderliner, it could be dead money. But so it will be if the horse runs on Saturday and fails. More decisions!
We need to establish some kind of contained approach, based on our experience and our wallets. There are 364 other days in the racing year, and most of them will have some racing. To outlay a small fortune on this one race would be foolhardy.
But to skip it completely, when there may be huge pickings for an alert and experienced horseplayer, might well be even more foolish!
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