Sometimes you don't know why your horse lost, but many losses can be avoided. Here are a few vital issues about "not losing": 1. Heavy tracks threaten the punter's dollar. Serious punters often find something else to do on wet days. Track authorities will sometimes try to rate their tracks on the best possible figure under the circumstances. They're not going to jeopardize their TAB takings by suggesting an "unsure" 8 when they can post a "maybe" 7. 2. Ignore market
Sometimes you don't know why your horse lost, but many losses can be avoided.
Here are a few vital issues about "not losing":
1. Heavy tracks threaten the punter's dollar. Serious punters often find something else to do on wet days. Track authorities will sometimes try to rate their tracks on the best possible figure under the circumstances. They're not going to jeopardize their TAB takings by suggesting an "unsure" 8 when they can post a "maybe" 7.
2. Ignore market moves. They are rarely significant these days. The big money goes on away from the course. Forget trying to second-guess the markets. Your bets can be made early at top fluctuation, or best TAB... and some experts say that no more bets should then be made. Late thoughts are usually loss chasers. The exception here is a strong method that depends on, say, a top judge's assessments. Long term losses can be avoided by only following horses that the top judge identifies and that are later supported by the markets.
3. Next, if a horse has never performed well on a certain track, there must be a question mark against it. It's not enough to just want to back the horse. Know the horse's record, and be very wary of a horse that has had, say, at least four starts on a track with nothing really substantial to show for them. At the other end of the scale, be aware if a horse has no track record at all. Those stories of "good horses failing at their first run around Caulfield", for example, are not fairy tales. But more generally, reports of in-form horses simply not handling a new track come out of virtually every metropolitan meeting.
THE BEST LOSS AVOIDER OF ALL
Here is one of the great lessons of racing: You can avoid many losses by specialising.
You can't be good at every kind of race and be an expert across the board. Few pros even try. It's much better to be a genuine expert in one area. Some professionals specialise in race types (say on horses four years and older), and others go for certain kinds of runners. For instance, if you seem to have more success with the horses that run on the pace, or even lead, that is a way of specialising. Horses racing on the pace generally get into less bother and they have their chance of winning. Horses racing off the pace, especially in sprints, have to contend with the ones in front either slowing down as they run out of puff, or trying to set slow paces so they don't get too tired.
If the on-pacers succeed in setting a slow pace, there is usually no hope for the "backmarker" or "closer". It will be mathematically impossible for this horse to make up the necessary ground. So you have to figure the pace as well as the other factors. And either way, the backmarkers have to get around, or through, the field. They can do that in a staying race, although a slow pace can ruin their chances there too, but in a sprint they are seriously disadvantaged.
With the on-pace runners, unless things go mad up front, you at least know that a reasonably able jockey can get you home. Get to know which on-pace jockeys best understand times. They stand out in the crowd, even at the top.
Finally, here is the oldest money-saver in the book: There is always another day.
That might be the most important lesson. It's also known as Patience. On that new day, you will be glad that you resisted those threats to your bankroll.
Putting it all together, winning is much easier if a punter follows these basics:
1. Specialise.
2. Stay away from heavy tracks.
3. Seek likely winners from on-pacers rather than backmarkers in sprints.
4. Avoid horses with a poor track record.