PART THREE

THREEI delayed this third part of our four-part analysis of the big racing days in Melbourne, primarily because I wanted to look at final fields for what many people would regard as the biggest day in Australian racing.Four Group Ones, two Group Twos, and three Group Threes. Not a bad haul is it? Randwick and Rosehill both have big days, and Sydneysiders may well dispute my suggestion as to the top day, but whatever the opinion of the individual is, it's sure a great day. Realistically, it's in

THREE
I delayed this third part of our four-part analysis of the big racing days in Melbourne, primarily because I wanted to look at final fields for what many people would regard as the biggest day in Australian racing.

Four Group Ones, two Group Twos, and three Group Threes. Not a bad haul is it? Randwick and Rosehill both have big days, and Sydneysiders may well dispute my suggestion as to the top day, but whatever the opinion of the individual is, it's sure a great day. Realistically, it's in another class altogether to Tuesday's meeting.

Anyway, enough of that. I very infrequently analyse a full program, but this is indeed an exceptional day. I had hoped that looking at the final fields would, as Hercule Poirot is so fond of saying, "reveal all".

No such luck. I think there was much to recommend being ignorant, as the knowledge of the fields and the possibility of rain has created massive confusion for me in most of the events. Let's just say that I'll be treading very warily!

The Carbine Stakes kick things off and frankly I don't have an opinion. Good luck if you do. This will be followed by the Lexus Stakes (that's what it's called at the moment) and it contains a gold pass for somebody straight into Tuesday's Melbourne Cup.

Again, all the best, but it's beyond me. Starting at the top, Alcopop could turn things around if he's anywhere near what he was at this stage last year. Herculian Prince failed in the Caulfield Cup but anybody who failed in that race can be forgiven and of course his stablemate won the race. I really can't put a value on Mourayan, as there seem to be two of him, but the handicapper thinks highly of him. Red Ruler sucked me and last time he was here, and I swore off him, but I acknowledge his class.

Linton? I really don't know, but Glen Boss isn't on him for fun and I have been told by more than one southern connection that he's the real deal. We shall see. Jessicabeel is another I haven't been able to assess classswise, so leave me out of it. Once Were Wild has that one victory of real substance to her name but I wonder if she needs a wet track. Throw Purple into that too.

Moudre will have yet another shot at making the big field: I thought he had the Geelong Cup all parcelled up until Americain found his way through. As someone with a financial interest in this bloke's prospects on Tuesday, having taken enormous odds early on, I'd naturally like to see him win this but the people who had been saying that he might not really stay got to me a little bit after Geelong. For all that, I always thought that he was a Flemington horse. Yet again, we shall see.

Count Encosta is another that I had an interest in, just a tiny one, early in the piece at higher odds then you ever begin to dream of. I suspect I won't collect. And Cedarberg might be a little on the raw side, but stranger things have happened and I wouldn't be surprised if he and Herculian Prince cart the field along.

That leaves the unknown (outside Sydney anyway) Maluckyday, Luke Nolen's mount Stansill, and Gothic Crown. Your guess is as good as mine!

My advice? Watch the race and enjoy it, and if you must have a bet keep it within reasonable limits. I might make the point that the exotics could pay anything.

The next race has a mob of three year old fillies ranging from absolute class to questionable. I've been very impressed with what I've seen so far of Brazilian Pulse. I don't know if she can beat the best of these, but I might have a couple of dollars to find out. Then we have the Coolmore, a top class sprint which brings together some lovely three year olds. Both the top two have to prove it again; Star Witness because he hasn't quite lived up to expectations since his big win last season, and Pressday because it's impossible to weigh him up at this stage. Leave me out of it.

Next of course we have the MacKinnon Stakes. There are a few things you might like to paste in the hat. Firstly, horses win this race and win the big one. Secondly, horses win this race then don't win the big one.

Sorry. That's not fair is it? But it just happens to be how things are. A handful must win to get the gold pass we referred to above. Others don't need it. It used to be called the "Practice Stakes" but not any more. Realistically, a horse like So You Think could win this one comfortably and get run over on Tuesday. Alternatively, he could go right on with it on Tuesday. And as another alternative, just to ruin your day, you have to take into account that Bart still has the option to pull him out and ensure that Precedence gets a run on Tuesday. Difficult.

Meanwhile, there are horses in there that muddy the waters quite seriously: I always thought that Shoot Out, like Moudre, was made for Flemington. Don't be surprised to see him rocket up the Melbourne Cup market after putting in something stunning in the MacKinnon. And it's very interesting that Bart is giving Faint Perfume a run here, while he holds the other four year old mare (Dariana) back for Tuesday. My guess is that it's a confidence thing after the former had the stuffing knocked out of her by a certain French jockey last start. Again, nothing about Bart surprises me.

Incidentally, the imports will be very largely absent. That's the norm. If you throw Harris Tweed into the "visitors" camp, you'll find that he (second in the Caulfield Cup, fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year) and Profound Beauty (fifth two years ago) are out to do what's been done before. Food for thought, that.

And so we ultimately get to the Derby. Never an easy race to pick, this one could prove extremely tricky and deceptive. Few people would argue that the top two don't deserve favouritism, but neither of them has an unblemished record and I'm glad there are other races on other days which are easier than this one! If you back one of these two, and it romps in, congratulations. Very brave.

Finally, we will get a race where things look a little easier to dissect. Typhoon Tracy in the Myer Classic looks to me to have the wood on Hot Danish over a mile at Flemington. And at weight for age, the only one I'd really be watching and a little bit nervous about would be the one at the bottom with the enormous weight pull. Yosei is a pretty good filly, mark my words. I don't know whether eight kilograms is enough. Maybe not. Could be interesting though.

The meeting will conclude with two exciting and classy sprints and yet again with a couple of "impossible to assess" returnees. The most prominent is, to my way of thinking, Catapulted. The Salinger is a class field but this one has the ability to roll them if he's at his very top. And that final race sees a couple of visitors, along with a couple of others that richly deserve a win. If I have an interest at all would probably be with the very last horse in the race book for this day. We're Gonna Rock has those trademark Kavanagh/Rodd signs flashing. If I find myself tempted that late in the day, and if the track can still be trusted, well, who can say? I just might...

Good luck to you however you travel. As I said right at the beginning, it's very rare for me to produce one of these overall views, but we're getting in earlier than anybody else and you've got about 72 hours to think about it all. Don't get sucked into the early markets; I sincerely believe that this is a situation in which the offerings will improve as the time gets closer.