It's understandable that Mark Kavanagh is playing down his chances with December Draw in Saturday's $2.5 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m).The big-race specialist has saddled up the event's two shortest-priced favourites in the past 30 years in recent years but emerged with a hard-luck tale on both occasions.In 2007 he had $2.50 favourite Maldivian, but the gelding didn't even run after rearing in the barriers and cutting his head, while last year's $3.30 favourite December Draw fractured a late

It's understandable that Mark Kavanagh is playing down his chances with December Draw in Saturday's $2.5 million BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m).

The big-race specialist has saddled up the event's two shortest-priced favourites in the past 30 years in recent years but emerged with a hard-luck tale on both occasions.

In 2007 he had $2.50 favourite Maldivian, but the gelding didn't even run after rearing in the barriers and cutting his head, while last year's $3.30 favourite December Draw fractured a lateral splint bone in the run and failed to beat a rival home.

"I've had plenty of luck in this race but it's been bad," the Flemington trainer said with a smile.

December Draw is unlikely to start favourite this year, but Kavanagh is confident he could not have the seven-year-old imported son of Medecis any better.

He was forced to have the gelding up and firing for qualifying races last year to ensure he got a run in the world's richest 2400m handicap, but this year he has been able to adopt a more patient approach.

Although he didn't race between last year's Caulfield Cup and last month's Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), in which he finished eighth, he did partake in a light autumn preparation.

December Draw improved off the Makybe Diva effort to finish third in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on 22 September, the same position he filled last time out in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) on 6 October.

Kavanagh has him primed to peak on Saturday and Kavanagh thinks he can join Skipton and Tobin Bronze as the only Caulfield Cup beaten favourites to return and win the race the following year.

"Better," was Kavanagh rapid response when asked how his charge was going compared to last year. "I haven't had to peak him yet and he's just coming good right now."

While not thrilled with the draw, Kavanagh was thankful he didn't draw where the TAB's $4.40 favourite Glencadam Gold (21), Dunaden (22, $8) or Americain (19, $19) drew in the race that consists of 18 runners and four emergencies.

"I'm not complaining, I didn't get 22, so I'm pretty happy with that," Kavanagh said. "There were some wide ones left when I went up there so I was pretty grateful to get where I got.

"He's still going to need a bit of luck, isn't he? The internationals will be hard to beat but at least they levelled out with some wide alleys.

"He's going as good as he can but you need a bit of luck to win a Caulfield Cup."

December Draw, who is in to $6.50 after solid support today, will be ridden by Michael Rodd, who like Kavanagh is striving to complete the set of Spring majors.

Rodd partnered Maldivian to Cox Plate glory in 2008 for Kavanagh, a year after winning the Melbourne Cup aboard Efficient. Kavanagh won the Melbourne Cup with Shocking a season after his Cox Plate success. (www.racingvictoria.net.au)