PPM's popular expert Jon Hudson has been studying some new mini-systems, and reveals some of the best In this latest article in his occasional series Mini Magic.

Over the years, I guess, I've sighted hundreds of mini-systems relating to greyhound racing. Some have been pretty good, though I confess I have rarely followed them through a long period of checking.

One that came my way recently, via a Sydney professional punter, is called 'The Percentage Package' and concentrates on a 'marriage' of a dog's pre-post price, the overall performance of its box draw for the win and the overall box performance in getting into the first three placings.


My pal has worked the system at Wentworth Park for some years and reports a 45 per cent win strike success with the top selections, along with a regular 70 per cent place strike. In ordinary term, this means a consistent four winners from 10 races every meeting, as well as a consistent seven out of 10 placegetters. Not bad?

You need access to a form guide which gives you (a) the winning box numbers at the track you intend operating and (b) statistics of how each box has fared in getting into the first three. This may be contained under the heading 'winning trifecta numbers' as it is in the Sydney-based Greyhound Recorder (Page 3). You also, of course, need to have a reliable pre-post betting market. Alternatively, you can use prices available on-course on race day/night.

You work out the win strike percentages for each box and then the 'trifecta numbers' percentage and add them together to get a percentage figure for each box. For example: At Wentworth Park (up to March 30) Box 1 had won 34 of the 175 races run over 520m. This means a percentage strike of 19.40 per cent.

Of the total 228 races run at Wentworth Park, the statistics showed that Box 1 had figured 121 times in the first three, a percentage of 17.7 per cent. Added together this gives you a Box 1 percentage of 37.1 per cent. This percentage will apply to all races on the card run over 520m. You now move on to the pre-post betting. Let's say the Box 1 dog in the first race is an 11 /2 chance. You convert this to a percentage figure, according to the usual book-maker's percentage chart (see Dollars & Sense, Winning More, or previous P.P.Ms). Now, 11/2 converts to 15.38 per cent.

All you do to complete the figure for the Box 1 dog is to add the two sets of percentage-in this case 37.1 per cent plus 15.38 per cent, which equals 52.48 per cent.

You now do the same for every other dog in the race. The dog with the highest percentage figure is the expected winner. Its as simple as that. You will be interested, I’m sure, in the latest results I have from a Wentworth Park meeting (March 31,1990):

Race 1: Kylie Bale WON $2.20, $1.35.
Race 2: Gozo Nicolai 3rd $1.10.
Race 3: Valley Mail 2nd $1.85.
Race 4: Artimbah Lost
Race 5: Sandis Me Mum Lost
Race 6: Master Hilo WON $3.55,$2.10.
Race 7. Acacia Blaze 2nd $1.40.
Race 8: Spread Eagled WON $2.55, $2.40.
Race 9: Lucky Caprice Lost
Race 10: Hua WON $3.10,$2.40.

There is only a slight profit on level stakes here on the TAB ($1.40) but it represents 14 per cent on your outlay. My professional punter mate says he plays around with the size of bets, and usually builds up a steady 30 to 35 per cent profit on turnover during a year.

Now, for some more mini-systems, on dogs and horse racing:

EASY HITTER

  1. Ignore all dogs except those in boxes 4, 5 and 6.
  2. Ignore any greyhound which did not run lst, 2nd or 3rd last start.
  3. The bet is the dog which is listed at the lowest pre-post price.

THE STRIKER

  1. Look for any horse which has the following form figures for its last two starts: 1-5,1-6,1-7,1-8,1-9, 1-0.
  2. If the horse started at 6/1 or less at its latest unplaced start and is currently at 10/1 or longer in the pre-post marker then it becomes a bet.

TALLY-HO

  1. Consider only those horses in the widest three barriers. Back any horse that is 10/1 or under in the betting.

MINESWEEPER

  1. Consider only the top five horses in the pre-post market.
  2. Eliminate any horse drawn wider than barrier 5.
  3. Back the horse at the shortest price.

THE MISSILE

  1. Consider only the bottom five horses in a race.
  2. The selection is any horse which is 4/1 or shorter in the pre-post betting. (You can use this method successfully on the TAB. Wait until a few minutes before race start and then see which of the bottom five runners is paying $5 or less, and back it.)

By Jon Hudson

PRACTICAL PUNTING - MAY 1990