Last issue we began a series titled 20 Pitfalls To Avoid. Four were listed in that article, and now we bring you the other 16.
Pitfalls ... Even the word has an ominous ring! You can call them what you like (errors, mistakes, dumb moves, etc.) but they all mean very much the same thing, and will cost you plenty.
The idea with your betting, then, is to pare your mistakes down to the minimum. You're always going to make them, everyone does, but for your pocket's sake, avoid the more obvious ones. It's a fact that punters tend to make the same errors all their lives.
So far we've had four pitfalls to avoid, so let's go with the remaining 16. I hope you can get some instructive help from the advice.
PITFALL NO. 5 FANTASY STAKING
It's easy to believe that you can turn a bad loss at level stakes into a profit by using a high-flying staking plan. Alas, it isn't the case. You can turn around a small level-stakes loss, but if you lose more than, say, 5 per cent at level stakes it'll be mighty hard to pull back losses by betting any other staking plan. You can try them ... but if you do, be it on your own head! And, please, if you try any staking plan, test it in real-life.
PITFALL NO. 6 BETTING 'EM TOO SHORT
You might think that favourites come rolling home all the time but the statistics show that they don't. In each racing season, around 30 per cent of favourites win, which means that 70 per cent lose. They might run 2nd or 3rd but they don't win. They also are prone to losing runs. Don't think for one moment that a whole programme cannot go by without a winning favourite. It happens. Sure, back favourites, but try not to back them all. Pick the best ones, and try to chuck out the falsies.
PITFALL NO. 7 THE WRONG RACES
Try to think back over your betting life, and ask yourself how many times you've bet, and lost, on BAD races. Yes, lots of times, 1 bet. There's no future in such betting. There are thousands of races every year on which to bet and your job as a punter is to throw out the ones that are too hard, too weak and those which you know will offer no value. There are enough GOOD races on which to bet, and you'll do yourself a favour by sticking to them with your hard-earned cash.
PITFALL NO. 8 BLIND CORNERS
The fact that we have a fancy for a certain horse should lead us to be extra rigorous about investigating its prospects in a race. Don't lead yourself around a blind corner. Often it's tempting to assume we know all about the horse and it's this over confidence which may lead us to overlook the vital flaw which will later cost it a win. Try to put these "fancy" horses to the back of your mind at first, and then make sure you closely study the other runners.
PITFALL NO. 9 BETTING STYLE
Don't be a hip-hop punter. That means, don't jump around with your betting approach. The point is to develop a style that's right for you. Think of those selections and bets which have given you the most pleasure, and ask yourself whether you want to continue with such selections, or change your approach. Which bets do you place with confidence and which trouble you? It's up to you to pick the right style of betting, and then to stick with it. You'll be happier doing what you do best.
PITFALL NO. 10 OTHER PEOPLE
Other people can cost you a fortune through your betting life. Ask yourself why you'd listen to a mate who you know never wins at his punting? Why would you listen to the bloke who starts having a chat with you at the pub, or the TAB or the track? What does he know? Probably he knows less than you do about racehorse selecting and betting. In the end, it's your opinion that counts. The final issue rests with you. Don't fall into the trap of being led astray.
PITFALL NO. 11 LACK OF DISCIPLINE
We've all been there and done that when it comes to lack of discipline in our betting. How many times have you gone to the track vowing to have only three plum bets, and then found yourself betting willynilly on anything, all your good intentions thrown to the winds? You need to avoid this pitfall like the plague. Get yourself into a steely frame of mind. Remember the big "D" factors of Discipline, Detachment and Dedication and you will go a long way to turning yourself into a winning bettor.
PITFALL NO. 12 MESSY RECORDS
I won't be the first to have advised you to start keeping records of your betting! Every bet must be recorded, right down to those small "just for fun" bets. If no ' thing else, the process will reveal where you are going wrong, which particular bets, or which particular days, are dragging you down into the red-ink department. Recording your bets allows for all manner of revelations into your betting and there really is no excuse for not adopting the idea. All you need is pen and paper! You don't need to be a computer buff with spreadsheets, although if you can do that, do it.
PITFALL NO. 13 BAD PRICES
That overused word "value" is a must. You can bet all you like at bad prices, but if you do you won't make a profit. Bad prices are exactly that. They are not a true reflection of a horse's chance in a race.
A horse that should be 10/1 and which is offered at 5 / 1, for example, is at a BAD price. Reverse it, and he's at a GOOD price. If you keep taking "unders" then you are slowly slashing your wrists. Cheering home a winner at a BAD price is like finding fool's gold. Back your horses at the right price.
PITFALL NO. 14 NEGATIVE THOUGHTS
Even if you're in the middle of a losing streak, don't get negative. You must believe in what you're doing. Negative thoughts are inevitably punished in betting. Your aim should be to develop a suitable betting style and a method of form study which will enable you to ENJOY your racing, and to put you in a position to make a PROFIT. If your approach is a sound one, then there's no reason to be negative when the inevitable losing run happens because you will come good soon enough.
PITFALL NO. 15 MIND-CHANGING
Oh dear, how many times have 1 fallen for this one! How many times have 1 picked out a horse, gone to the track, and then backed something else, only to see my original pick win the race. It's an awful feeling. Last-minute mind changing may help you back a winner once or twice,, but mostly it's a doomed tactic, a real 100 per cent pitfall that you must avoid. Make your selections in advance, based on all that you know, and then stick to them. Don't be swayed off.
PITFALL NO. 16 CHANGING CONDITIONS
Always be prepared to stop a day's betting action if conditions suddenly change. Let's say you spent some hours studying form for a good track, but in the morning the heavens open and by race one the track is now rated SLOW. What do you do? Bet on regardless? Never. You may as well be sensible and call it a day there and then. There will always be another day. All those selections you made were for a FIRM track; you can't use them for a SLOW track! Silly stuff if you do.
PITFALL NO. 17 ODDS-ON DREAMS
Okay, you can back odds-on horses if you really want to, but how many horses in a year are truly worth a bet at odds-on? Not all that many. At level stakes, you'll be pushing to make any money at all. And unless you've priced a horse at 2/1 ON, and you are taking 4/5, you can't really say you're getting any value. Long term, you'll be better off sticking to horses that are at value in the black. Leave the odds-on pops to those more desperate than you are.
PITFALL NO. 18 DIVING IN!
Racehorse betting is always accompanied by doubts. That's the nature of the game but if you apply yourself and know that you are doing all the right things, you should be able to erase such doubts from your mind. But there will be many times when you are studying a race that throws up nothing of interest, and you may feel you will have wasted your time on the race unless you force yourself to dive in and make a selection. Resist! Don't pick a horse out just for the sake of it. If you're not confident, stay out. Wait for another race.
PITFALL NO. 19 PANIC MODE!
Never panic under pressure. Stay cool in the toughest of times. This is the professional way. You will have losing periods but don't try to rush and bustle your way out of them and in the process make things worse!
PITFALL NO. 20 UNREALISTIC GOALS
Finally, set yourself goals but not unrealistic ones. Seeking to make huge amounts in a year will place too much of a pressure on you. Choose a target you can achieve and build from there.
Click here to read
Part 1.
By PB KingPRACTICAL PUNTING – JANUARY 2003