A chap admitted to me recently that he'd backed 22 losers in a row. I told him not to panic. This may seem trite advice, but I meant it sincerely.
There is nothing worse for a punter than to enter the 'Panic Peril' syndrome. But it happens all the time. The losers arrive with monotonous, frustrating frequency and it seems nothing you do can change the streak.
The weak punter will bet and bet to break the losing run. Judgement goes out the window. Systems are thrown aside. Sensible staking is hurled to the winds. And, as a result, more losers slam home!
When a very bad losing run arrives - and I would say that anything above 20 losers is in that category - the punter should immediately stop betting and begin to ask himself some pertinent questions about his selection process.
What is he doing wrong? Why are his selections losing so consistently? How many times has it happened before? What can he do to arrest the slide? Should he consider a completely new selection approach, or is there room in his present policy for changes that can turn things around?
It is always best, I have found, to retreat and regroup when under siege from a bad losing run. Because the simple fact is that if you don't deal with what is wrong, then the same thing is likely to happen time and time again - and you will end up in really dire straits.
In a way, it's like driving up a dead end street again and again, even though you know through experience there is no way out the other end!
If the punter hasn't already done so, he should stop and think about his goal-setting. Is he seeking out the right horses? Is he betting in the right price range for his strike rate? How much does he really want to earn on his invested dollar?
Let's take a look at some challenging statistics: To earn a profit of 40 cents on the wagered dollar a punter would have to win 30 per cent of his bets at average odds exceeding 7/2. Now take a look at the following figures because they provide ample food for thought:
TO EARN A PROFIT RATE OF 20 CENTS ON THE WAGERED DOLLAR A PUNTER MUST
- Win half of all his bets at average odds not lower than 7/5, or
- Win 40 per cent of his bets at average odds of 2/1, or
- Win 33 per cent of his bets at average odds of 13/5, or
- Win 30 per cent of his bets at average odds of 3/1.
TO EARN A PROFIT RATE OF 40 CENTS ON THE WAGERED DOLLAR, A PUNTER MUST
- Win half of all his bets at average odds of 9/5, or
- Win 40 per cent of all his bets at average odds of 5/2, or
- Win 30 per cent of all his bets at average odds exceeding 7/2.
Any punter has to be very conscious of these statistics. They tell him exactly the task confronting him at the races or in the TAB agency. They are something to think seriously about when you are caught in the slipstream of a horror losing run.
Let's say that all you want to do is earn 20 cents on your wagered dollar. You know the best strike-rate you can achieve is around the 30 per cent mark. That means you have to back winners at average odds of 3/1.
What does that tell you? Obviously, you should forget about any selections UNDER that price. Now look at the bets you have made in your losing run - how many were under 3/1. A lot, I am willing to bet! If you had refused to bet on them, how much better off would you be?
It's likely your losing run might be only half of what it is. Now that you know what you face, you can PLAN your betting in a proper manner. You know you have to hit a winner with at least 3 out of every 10 bets - and these winners have to be 3/1 or over.
In any case, to avoid long losing runs, you should bear certain important points in mind:
- NEVER BET UNLESS YOU ARE SURE YOU ARE SATISFIED WITH YOUR SELECTION.
- NEVER BET JUST FOR THE SAKE OF HAVING A BET.
- ALWAYS KEEP YOUR STAKING UNDER CONTROL AND ALWAYS REMEMBER THE PRICE LINE YOU NEED TO MAKE A PROFIT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT YOUR STRIKE RATE.
- NEVER PANIC. STOP BETTING IF YOU FEEL A LOSING RUN IS DEVELOPING.
- REMEMBER THAT THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER DAY.
If you are betting for an average price of 3/1, always try to get even more value by securing greater odds. The higher the odds above 3/1 the more profit you will make.
If you feel the temptation to bet on a horse under 3/1, resist it. In the long run, usually you will be better off. Always keep in mind that your best strike-rate is only 3 winners per 10 bets. If those winners are going to be under 3/1 then you won't win in the long run.
You will simply struggle along, losing a bit or losing a lot, always missing out on the jackpot.
Click here to read Part 1.
By Richard Hartley Jnr.
PRACTICAL PUNTING - AUGUST 1994