The field is finalised and now the task ahead is to find which horse will win this year's Melbourne Cup.With 24 horses it is easy to get confused but using Cup history can help eliminate the also-rans and assist in identifying the winner.The Cup was first run in 1861 and since saddlecloths were first recorded in 1877, numbers four (C'est La Guerre) and 12 (Bauer) have been the most successful with 11 wins each.International raider Septimus will attempt to become the 11th horse to win carrying nu
The field is finalised and now the task ahead is to find which horse will win this year's Melbourne Cup.
With 24 horses it is easy to get confused but using Cup history can help eliminate the also-rans and assist in identifying the winner.
The Cup was first run in 1861 and since saddlecloths were first recorded in 1877, numbers four (C'est La Guerre) and 12 (Bauer) have been the most successful with 11 wins each.
International raider Septimus will attempt to become the 11th horse to win carrying number one after Makybe Diva (2005) broke a 51-year drought for the topweight.
French stayer Varevees will carry number 20 and while it has been successful three times she will have to break 111-year losing run, with its last win Gaulus in 1897.
Profound Beauty would be only the second horse to win with number 18 after Peter Pan landed the first of his two Cups in 1932, while New Zealander Prize Lady has number 21 which had its only win when Bitalli carried it in 1923.
The news was no better for Prize Lady at the barrier draw when she got gate 18. A Cup winner is yet to start from there since barriers were first recorded in 1924.
The starting stalls as we know them today were first used in 1958 and since then there also hasn't been a winner from barriers eight (Guyno) or 12 (Yellowstone).
Alessandro Volta in barrier 11 and Red Lord in 14 have the most successful barriers with five wins each although gate 11 has a better record going back to 1924 with seven wins compared to 14's six wins. Makybe Diva won two of her three Melbourne Cups from barrier 14.
Often people select their Melbourne Cup fancy on name but be careful when taking this approach.
Significantly 81 of the 147 winners have single-word names and last year Efficient became the first since Ethereal (2001).
Delta Blues (2006) was the last of 61 Cup winners with a double-barrelled name.
Might And Power (1997) was the last of five horses with three-word names to win the Cup and this year French named stayers C'est La Guerre and Nom Du Jeu fit that criteria.
C'est La Guerre and Master O'Reilly would join Gurner's Lane (1982) and Let's Elope (1991) as the only Cup winners with an apostrophe in their names.
Horses with seven-character names (Newport and Moatize) have won 31 Cups followed by eight-character names (Septimus, Honolulu, Zipping, Mad Rush, Littorio, Gallopin, Varevees and Red Lord) with 21 Cups.
The most successful first initial is "T" with 16 wins but no horse qualifies this year.
Profound Beauty and Prize Lady make up for unfavourable saddlecloths with the second most successful first initial, "P" (12 wins, the last Piping Lane in 1972) while horses with the first initial "M" (Master O'Reilly, Mad Rush and Moatize) are running hot with 12 wins, including five in the last 11 years.
The initial "B" (Bauer, Barbaricus, and Boundless) and "S" (Septimus) have 11 wins each.
Initials "I" (Ice Chariot) and "Y" (Yellowstone) have never won the Cup and "Z" (Zipping and Zarita) got its only win with Zulu in 1881.
As far as age goes four-year-olds (42 wins) are now level pegging with five-year-olds (42 wins) after Efficient's win last year.
Three-time winner Makybe Diva was the last five-year-old (2003) to win and also the last of 10 seven-year-olds (2005).
Delta Blues was the 28th six-year-old to win and the fifth in the last 10 years. This year Septimus, Master O'Reilly, Ice Chariot, Bauer, Newport and Varevees are the six-year-olds.
Males have dominated the Cup over females 131 wins to 16 with Delta Blues (2006) the 63rd stallion and Efficient the last of 49 geldings to triumph.
Mares have won seven Cups since 1988, including five since 1998 and Boundless, Zarita, Profound Beauty, Varevees, and Prize Lady line up this year.
Bay coloured horses have the best Cup record with 60 wins and there are 15 in this year's field.
Brown horses (Nom Du Jeu and Master O'Reilly) have won 37 Cups, the last being Jezabeel (1998), while Media Puzzle (2002) was the last of 34 chestnuts (Boundless and Gallopin).
Efficient was the sixth grey Cup winner and Bauer, Newport and Barbaricus are the greys this year.
Moatize is registered as a bay or brown horse and only five have won the Cup, the last Might And Power.
Matching age, sex and colour indicates Alessandro Volta as a four-year-old bay stallion (11 wins) and Honolulu, Yellowstone, Mad Rush, and Viewed as five-year-old bay stallions (nine wins) are the best chances.
Weighted to win are Littorio with 52.5kg (eight wins) and Ice Chariot and Viewed with 53kg (seven wins) while Honolulu, Gallopin, Bauer, and Newport carry weight penalties which 42 horses have done to win the Cup.
Significantly 19 of the last 37 Cup winners started in the Caulfield Cup, and 11 of them were placed as Nom Du Jeu and Barbaricus were this year.
Only three of the last 15 Cup winners raced on Derby Day which may nullify Barbaricus who finished second in the Mackinnon Stakes.
However Bart Cummings has won the Cup 11 times and 10 of them competed on Derby Day as did his two Cup runners this year, Moatize and Viewed. Ice Chariot and Littorio also fronted up at Flemington on Saturday.
Irish trainer Dermot Weld won the Cup with Vintage Crop (1993) and Media Puzzle (2002) and this year has Profound Beauty who has Makybe Diva's jockey Glen Boss chasing a record equalling fourth Cup win.
Japanese stayer Delta Blues (2006) was the last international horse to win but others raiding the race this year are Septimus, Honolulu, Alessandro Volta, Yellowstone, Mad Rush, Bauer, and Varevees.
Varevees' jockey will wear the all black silks which have been carried to victory a record four times including by Archer in the first two Cups.
C'est La Guerre, Zipping and Boundless also have colours with a plain body which is compatible with 56 Cup winners.
Except for a black star on her jockey's red cap, Profound Beauty has identical colours to 1890 Cup winner Carbine.
Red capped jockeys (Red Lord) have won a record 30 Cups.
A long shot is overdue with 15 winners starting longer than $31, the Bart Cummings-trained Think Big the last at $34 in 1975. The Pearl (1971), Wotan (1936) and Old Rowley (1940) are the longest priced winners at $101.
Makybe Diva was the 33rd favourite or equal favourite to win, but over the years the most likely odds of the winner have been $11 and $9 with 14 wins and 12 wins respectively.
Prediction: Profound Beauty, Septimus, Mad Rush, Nom Du Jeu.