For a year now, Banker Weekly has been publishing some of the very best staking and selection methods ever produced in Australia. Now, PPM readers have the chance to take advantage of the Banker Weekly articles by The Optimist, Jon Hudson, George 'Barker' Bellfield and Martin Dowling.
In a continuing series, we are publishing the best articles from Banker Weekly, beginning this month with some of The Optimist brilliant staking plans. In the August issue of PPM we'll publish Jon Hudson's most exciting selection methods.
I've been putting together staking plans for a year now for Banker Weekly, and yet I find myself going back to the early days to find what I believe is one of the greatest plans for small punters. I call it The Succulent 600 Plan and it was in the very first issue of Banker Weekly. Since then, a number of readers have contacted me to tell me how well they have done with it.
Firstly, a word or two about staking plans. Most of them fail-and why.? I believe the first reason is that punters do not have the mental strength to follow most plans as they should be followed, no matter whether the plans actually work or not. If you have a staking plan that turns a reasonable level stake profit into an excellent moneymaker then of course it IS worth pursuing.
But what happens with most punters? As soon as the plan goes through a slight downhill run-through no fault of its own-you drop it! Or you simply forget about it and go on to the next hopeful. Now, it's human nature to want to win, and so a loss or two is depressing. What happens in most cases is that the following week, after ignoring your staking method, you back a 10-1 winner and have one unit instead of the required 10 units!
You must give a staking plan a fair trial. The second reason for staking plans not working is that they rely on something called patience. Punters, though, are impatient. When we strike a loser, we fall prey to temptation and look for something else to get out' on. We drop our selection plan and our staking plan....
Okay, let's look at the Succulent 600 Plan. It's easy to operate and will give you a winning day if you can arrange to back one winner at 9-4.
Betting to a bank of 600 units, this is how you stake:
BET ONE - 10 units on Horse A
If A wins and pays 9-2 or better, then
BET 20 units on Horse B and 20 units on Horse C
If Horse A loses, or wins at less than 9-2, then
BET 10 units on Horse B and 10 units on Horse C.
If Horse B wins at 9-2 or better, then regardless of A's result you
BET another 10 units on Horse C.
If B loses, or wins at less than 9-2, no more bets. There are 10 or 20 units already on Horse C.
The maximum you will need to start off is only 30 units, but I recommend you have 20 times that sum as your 'safe bank'. You don't actually have to have the 600 units; you merely assume it might be needed to be faithful to the plan over the entire betting period.
What I am doing is doubling the unit if I get a winner, but I am restricting myself to three bets a day. The wider spaced they are the better-it gives me more time to get set. What, in fact, am I aiming to do? Well, WIN, naturally, but as well as that I am seeking to make a profit provided any one of the horses wins at 9-4 or better.
You may think this is a tough assignment. But read on ... As long as I can get a winner at 9-2 I will do much better than break even. A winner at 9-4 will cut even. I am after two winners, and hopefully on occasions three. The day I get my three winners at 9-2 1 will receive 330 units for my 60 units.
Analysing, then: One winner at 9-4 -32.5 units on a maximum outlay of 30 units. Three wins at 9-2-330 units for an outlay of 60 units. Three wins at, say, 6-1-420 units for 60 units.
Example 1: Horse A wins at 3-1. We have 10 units on him, for a return of 40 units. Our next bets are 10 units on Horse B and 10 units on Horse C. If, say, Horse B loses we have no more bets, but we still have 10 units going on to Horse C. If it wins at, say, 2-1, we get a return of 30 units. So, all in all, we have stayed 30 units for a return of 70 units. This is a profit of 40 units for two winners at 3-1 and 2-1.
Example 2: Horse A wins at 9-2. We have 10 units on him, and get a total return of 55 units. We now have 20 units on Horse B and 20 units on Horse C. Let's assume Horse B wins at 2-1. We get a return of 60 units. Because Horse B won at less than 9-2 we have no further bets, but we do still have 20 units going on to Horse C. If he wins at, say, 2-1, we get another 60 units return. So, altogether, we have staked a total of 50 units, for a total return of 175 units, for a profit of 125 units.
Any staking plan has three major requirements:
- The system you use with it must have a reasonable chance of winning. Everyone who has any sense operates some form of a system. Yours might be to make a thorough and exhaustive examination of the formguide, and come up with one or two specials a day. Others follow mechanical systems.
- The system has to come up with regular winners or be as certain as you can be of finding longer-priced winners every so often, to compensate for runs of losers. These systems that have runs of losers can only be operated by those punters with nerves of steel, and lots of patience. Otherwise, the pressure becomes too much and things tend to slide away.
- The staking plan MUST be followed through, and your bank must be able to stand the losses. You can't expect to follow a plan for half its predicted lifespan and expect to be successful. Everything you know about racing will tell you that, at some stage of the game, winners are going to elude you. So, if you make a decision to follow a system or a staking plan, then STICK TO IT.
The following plan is what I called The Reliable Long-Term Plan and I have divided it into two sections. The first is for punters whose plan can find one winner at 4-1 in a 10-bet sequence. The second part is for punters who have a plan capable of finding a winner at double-figure odds in 22 bets.
Why 10 bets? Well, I'm assuming you can find a winner at each-way odds 10 per cent of the time and 1 reckon most punters can go close to that. Why 22 bets? That means 4.5 double-figure winners in every 100 bets, or being right less than 5 per cent of the time! Even less if the winners are better than 10-1.
THE STAKING
Remember, that you stop at a winner which satisfies the above requirements. When you get your 4-1 winner or your double-figure winner you start the series again.
SERIES ONE
The 4-1 Winner
Bet series: 1-1-1-1-2-2-3-4-5-6
Outlay possible is 26 units over 10 bets. Your first four bets are one unit, then two bets at two units, one bet at three units, four units, five units and six units.
SERIES TWO
Double-figure Winners
Bet series: 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-33-3-4-4-4-5-5-6-6.
Outlay possible is 60 units over 22 bets.
One idea is to run the two methods in tandem. Look for ,-he longshots and the shorter-priced winners by applying two plans that fit the requirements.
According to my figures, a minimum profit you can expect of Series Two is four units and that is based on one winner at 10-1 in the 22 bets. The turnover profit will be actually determined by where the winner falls in the bet series and what it pays.
Series One will produce percentage profits on turnover as follows-for a 4-1 minimum winner, win first bet +400%, second bet +200%, third bet +66%, fourth bet +25%, fifth bet +66%, sixth bet +25%, seventh bet +45%, eighth bet +66%, ninth bet +20% and tenth bet +7.6%.
Four bets winning at 4-1 or better in 104 units outlaid will keep you more than solvent, provided you can get at least one winner every 10 bets.
Finally, for the punter who likes plenty of action but on only a couple of races. This is The Straight And Narrow Plan. Select two races only. Stick to good class races. You will need a bank of 500 units. Take 100 units out for the first day. You have chosen the two races you consider the best of the day. Pick your three best horses in each of the races (or take the pre-post favourites).
You bet as follows:
(a) Three quinellas each race at $4 each, total $24.
(b) A 3-horse box trifecta each race, total $12.
(c) Nine doubles (3 x 3) at $2 each, total $18.
(d) One major double the two best bets, or top favourites, total $2.
(e) Each-way bet $10 x $10 the first race favourite, or your best bet, total $20.
(f) Each-way bet $10 x $14 the second race favourite, or your best bet, total $24.
You may be asking why the staggered place bet-my reasoning is that, at this stage, it might be a little more comforting to go home with something if everything else fails! Two places at a divvy of 75c would produce a return of around 50 per cent on your outlay. This is a safe, clever, careful little plan, combining both selection and staking and you are unlikely to get into too much trouble with it.Next Month: Don't miss Ion Hudson's brilliant selection plans and betting ideas.
Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 4.
Click here to read Part 5.
By The Optimist
PRACTICAL PUNTING - JULY 1988