I know the official handicappers do their best to even up the chances of all runners in all fields but I would be surprised if the handicapper for the 2010 Epsom Handicap would be totally happy with the spread of weights. Before scratchings there are 21 horses listed in the field and 80.95% (17) of them are on the limit weight with Once Were Wild 0.5 kg over the limit.If you look at the official handicappers ratings (www.australianracingboard.com.au) you will note the top weighted Epsom runners
I know the official handicappers do their best to even up the chances of all runners in all fields but I would be surprised if the handicapper for the 2010 Epsom Handicap would be totally happy with the spread of weights. Before scratchings there are 21 horses listed in the field and 80.95% (17) of them are on the limit weight with Once Were Wild 0.5 kg over the limit.
If you look at the official handicappers ratings (www.australianracingboard.com.au) you will note the top weighted Epsom runners : Danleigh 117, Black Piranha 116, Doubtful Jack 107 and Once Were Wild at 108. The next horse in the ratings (not weights) is Trusting at 104 or 13 rating points less than Danleigh or 6.5kg weight wise. Trusting is 104 compared to Once Were Wild at 108 hence there should be 1.5-2kg difference between them in the handicaps but the difference is 0.5kg hence Trusting is 1-1.5kg worse off at the weights using the handicappers ratings as a guide. Naturally as you look further you will note all of the horses on the limit are progressively worse off at the weights as you go down the field.
Basically, what this means is that the top weights, Danleigh and Black Piranha, are quite well handicapped even though at face value their weights seem high. Now being weighted well is one thing but as far as I am concerned I think both are a risk at the distance. Between them they have had 15 starts at 1600m for 0 wins and their placings total 5, which considering their class, is ordinary enough for me to drop off. If either win I would be thinking the win would be a career highlight as they have the job ahead of them. If I am right they are no chance of winning hence dropping them out has the top weight as Doubtful Jack who has 1 from 1 at the distance. He is weighted at 2 kg over the limit thus making this quite a wild Epsom IF I am right about the two topweights so, theoretically, anything can happen when you have a field with a 2kg spread.
However, I think there is a weight special ,going on form and not handicappers ratings, in the race in Trusting and I think only bad luck stops him from winning. I am a big fan of horses dropping several kilos from their last start into major handicaps, especially from wfa races, and Trusting fits that bill perfectly. His biggest problem is his get back style and I am hoping from his nice barrier J Cassidy is able to have him midfield, with cover 2/3 wide, looking for a run upon straightening and if he gets a clear passage I will be surprised if he is not hailed as a top chance half way down the running. My roughie is R for Rough at $125 and she goes by the name of Hidden Wonder. She is not well in at the weights but for a front runner/on pacer she is drawn beautifully and has a quality I love in a horse: she fights. Maybe, just maybe.