The likelihood of a heavy 10 for the Caulfield Cup looms on the very wet horizon especially if the rains keep thundering down as it has been most of last night and today and in line with the gloomy weather forecasts. In one respect this makes selecting the winner of the Cup a harder task than normal but if you look at the way I am it makes it easier. On a dry track a Caulfield Cup can be won by the better sprinter on the day and not necessarily the better stayer but with a really wet track the w
The likelihood of a heavy 10 for the Caulfield Cup looms on the very wet horizon especially if the rains keep thundering down as it has been most of last night and today and in line with the gloomy weather forecasts. In one respect this makes selecting the winner of the Cup a harder task than normal but if you look at the way I am it makes it easier. On a dry track a Caulfield Cup can be won by the better sprinter on the day and not necessarily the better stayer but with a really wet track the word "slog" comes to mind.
It is my belief that this year we need to look for the real stayers in the field who can also handle really rain soaked conditions and that list can be shortened to five runners: Shocking, Harris Tweed, Monaco Consul, Faint Perfume and Drunken Sailor (doubtful). There is no doubt Shocking goes on top followed by Harris Tweed if we take 3200m form into account. Due to the Bart Cummings factor I will have Faint Perfume ahead of the slightly psychotic Monaco Consul (doesn't like racing inside horses: wish granted from wide barrier) and Drunken Sailor last of the five. My criteria for inclusion has simply been heavy track wins however I have been slightly lenient with Drunken Sailor as he has won 4 from 8 slow track runs and surely one of the wins would have been heavy even though listed as slow.
Other punters will have their own criteria, and time will show if theirs is better than mine, but there is one thing for sure: very few serious form punters would leave Shocking out of their top 3 or 4 chances. I will not detail his achievements because you all know them but with 57kg he seems quite fairly weighted at 5.5kg over the limit (assuming Valdemoro doesn't run) and he has all the boxes ticked as far as 2400m at Group 1 on a wet track is concerned. You could argue his Caulfield record is not flash but if you have a really good look distance plus two poor runs in the autumn, when he was spelled, are part of the raw figures and in all fairness he can be forgiven for those efforts.
I will be tackling the CCup by taking a win and place bet on Shocking , where the place bet will cover the win outlay and the exotics (trifecta, first four). If Shocking runs unplaced I lose the lot unless Harris Tweed, Monaco Consul, Faint Perfume and Drunken Sailor (if it gets a run) win as I will have a small saver on each to try and cover all outlay on the race.