A tough round of football from a betting perspective this week but these are the plays that I consider to be good value:North Melbourne v Sydney- North Melbourne H2H @ $2.05- North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.60The loss of Shane Mumford is huge for Sydney, with the big ruckman again dominant this year. His presence will be severely missed around the stoppages, and the in-form Todd Goldstein - with support from Drew Petrie - should account for Mark Seaby in the ruck battle. The inclusions of Levi Greenwo
A tough round of football from a betting perspective this week but these are the plays that I consider to be good value:
North Melbourne v Sydney
- North Melbourne H2H @ $2.05
- North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.60
The loss of Shane Mumford is huge for Sydney, with the big ruckman again dominant this year. His presence will be severely missed around the stoppages, and the in-form Todd Goldstein - with support from Drew Petrie - should account for Mark Seaby in the ruck battle. The inclusions of Levi Greenwood and Liam Anthony also gives further depth to North's midfield rotation and though both teams have struggled for form recently, I think North can prevail on their home track. They should be fired up after some poor umpiring decisions cost them dearly last week and need to stand up tomorrow. Sydney's tall defenders Heath Grundy and Ted Richards have both had excellent years (until Grundy ran into a rampaging Buddy Franklin last week!) and should help keep the margin below 40 points.
Geelong v Gold Coast
- Geelong Line (-65.5) @ $1.90
Whilst Geelong have been sticking their head out at the right time in close games against some good sides, they should spoil the party for Gold Coast's new stadium unveiling and win this game by 11 goals +. Gold Coast have been thrashed both times they've met potential top 4 sides in Essendon and Carlton (139 and 119 points respectively) and Geelong's bigger bodies will totally dominate the contested ball. The losses of Enright, Ottens and Taylor might look significant on paper but when they are replaced by Ling, Lonergan and Mooney, no real strength and experience is lost. Geelong will also have a point to prove against former teammate Gary Ablett Jnr, and Gold Coast also have to deal with the perils of coming off the bye, which has proven a graveyard this year. Forecast rain - which Geelong excel in - further reinforces the case for a comfortable Geelong win.
Melbourne v Carlton
- Carlton 1-39 @ $2.25
Many think Carlton will win this game comfortably against a horribly undermanned Melbourne but I'm not certain it's that cut and dried. Carlton have a habit of only just scraping home against 'lesser' sides and may fall victim to a drop in intensity after a bruising encounter against Geelong last week. Melbourne, despite again being without their ruckman and best player Mark Jamar (as well as a host of other key players), are a different proposition at the MCG, and I think they're capable of giving Carlton a scare. Class should get the Blues over the line in the end but Carlton 1-39 is definitely the play for me here.