PORT ADELAIDE v CARLTON- Carlton 40+ @ $2.35- Carlton 60+ @ $3.75Port Adelaide have exhibited an alarming mental fragility this season, and I'm not sure their tumultuous week off-field will have helped their preparation for Sunday's game against Carlton. You'd expect most teams to come out breathing fire, but in my opinion Port are more than likely to come out and get thrashed. Carlton's small forwards Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett can cause real headaches for what looks to be a top-heavy Port Ad
PORT ADELAIDE v CARLTON
- Carlton 40+ @ $2.35
- Carlton 60+ @ $3.75
Port Adelaide have exhibited an alarming mental fragility this season, and I'm not sure their tumultuous week off-field will have helped their preparation for Sunday's game against Carlton. You'd expect most teams to come out breathing fire, but in my opinion Port are more than likely to come out and get thrashed. Carlton's small forwards Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett can cause real headaches for what looks to be a top-heavy Port Adelaide defence, whilst the Carlton mids look a class above their counterparts and I can't see them losing the battle for contested ball. Port have struggled against Carlton of late and I really like the Blues to win this by over 40 points. A smaller play on Carlton 60+ can also be considered.
EXOTIC
- Kurt Tippett 'Most Goals For The Round' @ $21.00
Kurt Tippett definitely represents a bit of a value to be Round 11's leading goalkicker and is worth a small play. In what is forecast to be a wet weekend in Melbourne, he has the advantage of dry conditions under the Etihad roof, against a North Melbourne defence missing two 'third man up' options in Michael Firrito and Daniel Pratt. Whilst Scott Thompson is still a capable full-back, Tippett scores heavily and quickly when on a roll, and could actually benefit from teammate Taylor Walker's absence, as he appears to thrive on being the primary target. If the Adelaide midfield can get it in quickly to him one-out I reckon Tippett can snare a decent bag of 5, 6 or 7 goals, which could be enough in what might generally be a low-scoring round. Lance Franklin is $4 equal favourite but comes up against the form centre-half-back of the competition in Luke McPharlin, so I consider him to be unders (and his inaccuracy always helps!). The real danger will come from the other $4 favourite Josh Kennedy, as he should get a heap of supply from his Eagles midfield against the young travelling Gold Coast. Nathan Bock is himself a quality defender - so hopefully he can do the job - but Kennedy is probably worth a saver nonetheless.
MULTI
- Melbourne Line (+26.5)
- Geelong over 15.5
- Brisbane-Sydney Either Team Under 15.5
- Hawthorn over 15.5
- Carlton over 15.5
@ $10.77
Geelong, Hawthorn and Carlton should all comfortably win by the 15.5 margin, each against struggling opposition. I expect a tight game at the Gabba between a gutsy Brisbane side and a resilient Swans outfit. There probably won't be more than a kick in it all night so I think 'Either Team Under 15.5' looks the right bet at $2.80. Backing Melbourne is fraught with danger but Essendon come off the bye this week and are still missing midfield general Jobe Watson, so I think the Demons look well in at the 26.5 line in what should be a low-scoring game. At $10.77 this multi is definitely worth a small play.