Based on the TAB Fixed Odds, using Thursday nights prices, there are 15 horses priced at 4/1 ($5.00) or less set to race at Randwick and quite a few of them present punters with problems. In Race 1 (Shannara $2.9, Flying Success $4.6, Zingaling $4.8), Race 2(Al Dhafra ($2.2, Euphemism $3.8) and Race 4 (Beneteau $4.2, Sasa $5.0) the horses listed have no form at the distance of each race. In Race 3 Gold Water ($3.2) stands out on form but has a tricky wide barrier to contend with while in Race 5
Based on the TAB Fixed Odds, using Thursday nights prices, there are 15 horses priced at 4/1 ($5.00) or less set to race at Randwick and quite a few of them present punters with problems. In Race 1 (Shannara $2.9, Flying Success $4.6, Zingaling $4.8), Race 2(Al Dhafra ($2.2, Euphemism $3.8) and Race 4 (Beneteau $4.2, Sasa $5.0) the horses listed have no form at the distance of each race. In Race 3 Gold Water ($3.2) stands out on form but has a tricky wide barrier to contend with while in Race 5 Rangirangdoo ($2.3) has yet to win at 2000m and is on a 7 day back up. In Race 8 Alverta ($3.2) has drawn barrier 10 from 11 runners, has not raced for 5 weeks and has a career record at the track and distance of 1 win from 5 runs. In the same race Ego's Dare ($5.0) is first up, though 2 from 3 first up is very good, while Informality ($5.0) is 2nd up from a lower class 1st up run. The only race where the runners quoted at 4/1 or less do not seem to have niggling worries is Race 7, the All Aged Stakes where Mic Mac ($3.6), Hot Danish ($3.6) and Danleigh ($4.2) stand out. See my previous blog re this great race.
It need to be said that every race mentioned can be won by one of the runners listed BUT it also needs to be said there are enough races around in the space of a week where you can back horses with less worries so why take the risk when there is always another day. I know Rangirangdoo was beaten by Theseo but another way to look at the form is that Rangi beat Speed Gifted, better known as a handicapper, in the 2000m wfa Ranvet, and that does not quite convince me as a value bet at $2.30. Al Dhafra, a most promising horse, attempts the 400m rise to 2000m for the first time but is it worth the risk at a tick over the toss of a coin. Hey, if both won by 4 lengths I would not be surprised but if both were beaten I would not be surprised either. I hate to be the bearer of negative thoughts but it is always worth thinking deeply about short odds on horses that have yet to be consistent winners under todays race conditions.
My apologies for not providing todays prices but as I write this at 7.30 a.m. all Sydney races have the suspended sign attached. I have a special breakfast to go to with one of my daughters in Melbourne this morning and need to be there quite early. Regardless, just be wary today.
Late addendum:
It is now 8am and it all becomes clearer. The scratchings of Rangirangdoo and Alverta render my comments there useless but keep the thoughts as to why I wrote them in mind.