Serious form work is a fascinating part of horseracing. I have often mentioned to friends that I like the unravelling part of racing more than the betting but I also love the staking part of the horseracing puzzle as well . In other words, I love it all except some of the decisions made by so called experts about how racing should be run but I had better not get onto that bike!I thought I would give you a peak preview of my "unravelling" of Race 2 at Caulfield tomorrow. Normally I woul
Serious form work is a fascinating part of horseracing. I have often mentioned to friends that I like the unravelling part of racing more than the betting but I also love the staking part of the horseracing puzzle as well . In other words, I love it all except some of the decisions made by so called experts about how racing should be run but I had better not get onto that bike!
I thought I would give you a peak preview of my "unravelling" of Race 2 at Caulfield tomorrow. Normally I would have a quick look at this type of race and dismiss the race fairly quickly as one that has too many chances but while doing my prelims I decided this race had runners in the market worth risking a fraction.
This is how I have written my cryptic notes:
1. Philda - 1 month break concerns, has won off 28 days CL4 Cranb, 1st up 1200m Mdn winner
2. (A) Romneya - gutsy mare vs males, handles 21d. break o.k.
3. Down Under Boy - has won 1st up but this level needs to be 3rd up
4. (B) Larrys Never Late - won 1st up last campaign beating Ace Harmony (2nd up) who won Caul 2 runs later beating VRC Derby 4th Buffett, 3rd to LNL was Cape D'Amore (won Stoney Creek CL4 next run) and recent winner beating LVision (won last Sat): def 1st up hope, unbeaten 1st up
5. Monsieur Feraud - 2nd up off 43 d. needed last run, not effective 2nd up off normal spells, might need this run
6. (A) Arch Symbol - fin 0.2L ahead O'Crikey (just beaten x Philda 1st up: has won 2nd up last two preps a has 1st up win (all wkr company): , loves it damp
7. La Rocket - same spell as Philda, all wins 7-14 days therefore 28 d ??
8. (B) Silky Smooth - weak efforts last camp, prior camp won off 18,21 d beating Snort, Rok Posta, 28 days a worry but off 35d beaten 1.9L to Rok Posta
9. Count To Zero - not won for 24 races since Nov 2007, 1st up run good but winning days over??
10. (B+) Maxisun - btn 1.9L to 1st Command, Masked Assassin, Huxssen, Pillar Of Hercules: ex 2nd to Rafaello (should have won Grp 1 Rupert Clarke): off 24 d. worry, best wins 11, 12d plus 1st up CL4 Bend win
11. Poised To Win - Colac Cup winner 2000m: 2 L off Zagreb, Light Vision, Baughurst, Gallopin last run last camp: 0/15 fresh = risk
12. (A) Nine Tales - fin 2.2L behind Arch Symbol last run, wide ht last run ok, won 3rd up last camp beat Cape D'Amore (see LNL comments)
13. (A) By The Way - light raced improver, up in class but can win with no surprise
14. Royal Striker- not on 1st up run, 3rd up Mdn winner, not here
A's = Romneya, Arch Symbol, Nine Tales, By The Way
B's = Larrys Never Late, Silky Smooth, Maxisun
The letters A and B and B+ are the comparisons I use between the chances in the race. For instance, in the first 4 TAB numbers I am only considering Romneya and Larrys Never Late as winning chances. I have Romneya (A) as the winner if just racing against Larrys Never Late (B).
What I do is pair off runners with serious chances thus giving me a number of A chances and B chances. My overall top selection is one of the A horses, naturally, but my second selection can come from either the A horses or the B horses. If Romneya is my top pick I then look at the other A's and ask myself who would be the danger, then I do the same for the B's and ask myself which of the B's is a danger to the danger I have identified in the A's to Romneya.
Eventually I cross examine them against one another. I am telling you Silky Smooth is my worst chance: for the others you will need to listen to my podcast!!
Right, now into the rest of the programme.