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Pensioner Plan update for plans 1, 2 and 3

As you all know I have been tinkering with what I call my Pensioner Plan where I am attempting to develop a system that will select a sensible number of collects simply based on a wildcat approach to selection, in the first instance. Those wild cat selections I now call Plan 1 and they take me no time at all to spit out a set of numbers for the programme. Since October 3 the slightly modified approach to Plan 1 has shown there have been 205 selections for 105 collects (42.16%) When I state colle

After some deep study of the previous selections for the Pensioner Plan selections I came up with some tougher rules such as eliminating horses on the limit weight, no mares against males or fillies versus males which became Plan 2 (I include the rules each week on the blog ). The modifications have improved the strike rate from 42.16% for Plan 1 to 46.89% for Plan 2 (68 from 145)The improvement percentage wise is only 4.73% but that also is over 10% improvement on the Plan 1 figures. The final plan is Plan 3 which is where I go through the form and eliminate horses that do not normally race on the pace or lead. For Plan 3 I do not want consistent back markers as selections. This approach has Plan 3 with 30 collects from 55 races (54.54%). This is a massive improvement based on the Plan 1 figures.

At this stage I still need to calculate all the collects and will post the results asap but it certainly looks like Plan 3 is the best approach of them all. I will certainly keep plotting all the selections for Plans 1 and 2 for some months but eventually I need to just stick with the Plan 3 selections and then really, really work on them alone to develop Plan 4. For plan 4 I will really need to study the form for the race more deeply than the superficial approach at the moment. I will certainly reduce the number of selections but if I can get the collects percentage around 65% I will have achieved a goal where there is every chance of some long term profits. As I have mentioned a few times in the past this is an experiment that will take quite a while to reach fruition but there is hope on the horizon. Eventually I would like it to develop beyond just Saturdays but first let's take these gentle steps first.

Along the way I have dabbled with a couple of variations of a target betting plan which will add to the bottom line. In my own private betting I have been tinkering with a staking plan that seems to be going ok and has had only one really bad patch. This bad patch came about when I was just making selections without being super careful and when you are not super careful for small bets in target betting you pretty soon strike the patch that tests you. I fought my way out of it but it was demanding to say the least. I will discuss this staking plan in the next week and will post the results on the 55 selections for Plan 3 plus those on Saturday sometime early next week.

This Saturday we all look forward to what most people call the real finish of Spring racing with the running of the Sandown Cup and after looking at the nominations it is going to be a beauty if all the top class runners can make it. We will know more later this morning after acceptance time. This time of the year the focus for Group racing followers heads West to Perth towards the Group 1 Railway Stakes and later on the Perth Cup. There is no doubt about Australian horseracing - it keeps on going and the interest for real horse racing addicts seldom wanes.

Catch you all Saturday via my blog and podcast.