Hi all,Back and refreshed and lighter in the pocket from frolicking around Coolangatta and a dabble in the Stradbroke. Great to cheer home Black Piranha even though I lost on the race: I wondered pre race if he was going to be the next Livistona Lane who also kept being beaten in Group 1 handicaps around the time Super Impose won his quartet of big mile races in Sydney. Hopefully he will be in Melbourne in the Spring.Now back to business. As mentioned previously I will be detailing the Pensioner
Hi all,
Back and refreshed and lighter in the pocket from frolicking around Coolangatta and a dabble in the Stradbroke. Great to cheer home Black Piranha even though I lost on the race: I wondered pre race if he was going to be the next Livistona Lane who also kept being beaten in Group 1 handicaps around the time Super Impose won his quartet of big mile races in Sydney. Hopefully he will be in Melbourne in the Spring.
Now back to business. As mentioned previously I will be detailing the Pensioners Staking Plan in todays blog.
Objective = $1 per race based on a bank of $5000. This is EXTREMELY conservative but when the bad run comes, and it will, we will at least have a bank worthy of taking the bad run on. Naturally, you can aim for less with a lesser bank. In fact, all my initial calculations will be based on a low objective anyway as you will see.
The divisor starts at 5/2 or 2.5 and after every loser the divisor increases by 0.5. Use a simple calculator as you go along. You always divide by whatever the fraction is.
After a collect we subtract the odds from the divisor and the amount won from the objective. For example: if seeking $12.50 with a divisor of 3.5 the bet will be 12.5/3.5 = $3.57. As the bet size is above $3.00 we rise to the nearest whole dollar which is $4.00.
Let's say it won and paid $1.60. The return would be $4 x $1.60 = $6.40 for a profit of $2.40. The next objective would be $12.50 less $2.40 plus $1.00 for the next race = $11.10. The odds of the collect were 0.6 to 1 thus 0.6 (always subtract 1 from the dividend: i.e.$1.60 becomes 0.6, $3.30 become 2.3)is deducted from the divisor reducing it to 3.50 minus 0.6 = 2.9. Our next bet is calculated as $11.10 divided by 2.9 = $3.82 which becomes $4.00.
Go through it slowly again using pen and paper.
As always I am extra conservative with recommending staking plans hence I believe the first safety valve is the addition of 0.5 to the divisor after every losing bet. The second safety valve I insist on is to take a profit on any series that is the equivalent of 10% profit on turnover or more after a collect.
Let me explain. If the first X number of bets result in an outlay of $16.00 and the collects equal $17.60 we rule off that series (+$1.60 = 10%)and start afresh even though we may not have won the original $1 objective per race. I believe a profit is a profit and that aiming for 10% profit on turnover adds the sort of security blanket target betting needs, especially during a bad run. Trust me when I say this rule will save us more often than not however also let me say 20 losers in row makes it difficult for any staking plan to get out of the mire.
My third safety valve is to bet for the place instead of pushing the odds with win only bets. This occurs when the selection is $3.60 or longer.
There is one other part of the staking plan that needs explaining which I will call the fourth safety valve. The divisor must never be below 2.5. This is designed to halt any massive rises in bet size during a bad run. Whenever, after a collect, the divisor goes below 2.5 a new divisor is added.
For example: The divisor is 2.9 and the collect is 0.6 = 2.3 as the next divisor. This is below 2.5 therefore all we need to do is add $1 for the next race to the objective and 2.5 to 2.3 which means the new divisor is 4.8.
OK, there it is. Join me in this journey and we will see how it all goes. There will be some wild times so can I also suggest you follow this experiment on paper. My whole idea is to show you how target betting can make or break you. After time X you will either say "yes, I think I can see where this might suit my style of betting" or "holy mackerel, this is not for me at all".
PS I missed adding a selection rule the other day.
Any horse that is first up is given the equivalent of 0 as it's last start form figure regardless of what it did last preparation. I will mention this again on Saturday morning when I post the selections.
See you then
Roman Koz