Well, wasn't yesterday a breath of fresh air for the Pensioner Plan with the Revised Pensioner Plan starting off with six bets for 4 collects totaling 10.8 units. Although Journey was a recommended place bet her win at around 8/1 was quite a surprise especially considering the David Hayes stable doesn't travel to Perth to catch the sunshine. As it turned out yesterday was not a nice day in Perth weather wise but the Hayes stable thought it was wonderful.Over the next few days I will provide a co
Well, wasn't yesterday a breath of fresh air for the Pensioner Plan with the Revised Pensioner Plan starting off with six bets for 4 collects totaling 10.8 units. Although Journey was a recommended place bet her win at around 8/1 was quite a surprise especially considering the David Hayes stable doesn't travel to Perth to catch the sunshine. As it turned out yesterday was not a nice day in Perth weather wise but the Hayes stable thought it was wonderful.
Over the next few days I will provide a copy of the bets of June 13 and June 20, as promised, just to show you the actual figures involved in target betting the Plan A selections aka Wildcat Selections. While I am at it I will go through those selections and apply the Plan C rules just to see what would have happened if we had applied them from the start. Just give me a few days as I am right in the middle of a huge project for PPM which I need to devote quite a few hours to over the next two weeks.
I showed the Plan C rules to a punting mate of mine and he asked why I did not include sex and age to the rules. By sex he meant dropping fillies and mares when against the males and by age horses aged seven older from January 01. His contention was that only good mares win against the males and that after a certain age the wear and tear of hard racing must affect the form of the older horses. In my defence I argued that many of the Plan C bets will be place bets hence I could be a little lax in the areas of age and sex but he was playing the Devil's Advocate and said he believed all my rules should be based on what could happen under a win bet scenario only. Amazingly, just a couple of hours later rising 9yo mare Reggie treated her male opponents with absolute contempt in the Caloundra Cup. Naturally, I made a quick phone call to my mate but he uttered the immortal "one swallow does not make a summer" and "not every mare is a Makybe Diva" and it was hard to argue my case without a substantial set of figures up my sleeve. Maybe later this year I will but not just at the moment.
In all fairness his argument is strong and even though I will not change the rules now I will certainly add some columns to the database I intend to keep on the Plan A selections. I will add sex, age and I will also add the number of career runs as well. The latter links into age to a certain extent. Some years ago I read an article, or an excerpt in a book , which postulated the theory that a horses win ratio declines fairly sharply after about 35 starts or about the sixth campaign, based on six runs per preparation on average. Time will tell where it is worth drawing the line for age, sex and race starts but all these factors are well worth considering if you really want a system that is tight with it's rules.