System rules must be obeyed to the nth letter of the law otherwise it no longer remains a system and instead becomes a selection process. This all quite subtle but I am sure you can see the difference. This weekend there are a few Plan A selections that have bitten the dust due to the tightness of the rules of the Revised Pensioner Plan. None is more startling than Armstrong Jones in Race 1 at Toowoomba.This race is over 1625m and yes, you guessed it, this last start winner misses out simply bec
System rules must be obeyed to the nth letter of the law otherwise it no longer remains a system and instead becomes a selection process. This all quite subtle but I am sure you can see the difference. This weekend there are a few Plan A selections that have bitten the dust due to the tightness of the rules of the Revised Pensioner Plan. None is more startling than Armstrong Jones in Race 1 at Toowoomba.
This race is over 1625m and yes, you guessed it, this last start winner misses out simply because he has only won up to 1600m. Now, any reasonable person would suggest this is a tad pedantic however what if the distance was 1650m. A rule which says "allow 50m either side of the horses winning range" would allow Armstrong Jones to become a selection. Let's stretch things another 10 metres and the race distance is now 1660m. Do we add another rule?
The reasonable people amongst you can now see where I am heading. Just where do you draw the line? The answer is quite simply "wherever the first rule is set" if it was a sensible rule in the first place. Certainly setting the distance level to exactly what is in the form guide (in this case "The Sportsman") MUST be the way to go. There can be NO doubt that this horse must have WON a race in a distance range compatible to the rules originally set. In a court of law Armstrong Jones would fail to qualify and that is that.
It is this sort of pedanticism that can save you a motza in the long term. I thought about the long term approach when I deleted I'm Discreet in Race 4 at Morphettville. Over the years there have been many, many horses I have seen who folded like pricked balloons when asked to go an extra 100 metres from 1000m to 1100m but I have also see quite a few win going from 1000m to 1400m. Both her wins have been over 1000m and there is every possibility she will run the extra 100m except for one thing: we do not actually know this as a fact. It is supposition at this stage and if punters keep betting on supposition they might as well toss their money in the air as it might land at the feet of someone who would actually do something useful with it.
By the end of time X we will see how many horses I have deleted from the Plan A selections due to 100m or less problems but until then let us be careful and apply the system rules as given