One racing publications price assessment for Catapulted in Race 8 at Eagle Farm this weekend was an amazing $7.50 and I am sure all punters would have run barefooted over broken glass to try and get that price. Naturally, that was way out but when I looked this morning I nearly flipped over the $1.90 being offered. On Thursday night I diddled and fiddled with my price assessments for the race and eventually I settled on $4.50 after even considering $5.50. In last weeks blog I made the point of t
One racing publications price assessment for Catapulted in Race 8 at Eagle Farm this weekend was an amazing $7.50 and I am sure all punters would have run barefooted over broken glass to try and get that price. Naturally, that was way out but when I looked this morning I nearly flipped over the $1.90 being offered. On Thursday night I diddled and fiddled with my price assessments for the race and eventually I settled on $4.50 after even considering $5.50. In last weeks blog I made the point of trying to identify false favourites by brutally assessing their chances based on some "rules" I set. Another factor to consider is whether the favourite you are happy to call a true favourite is actually value at the price.
On all basic factors Catapulted is a good A selection as he has drawn well, is trained by a top trainer and is a last start easy winner however the credentials of a few other runners in the race are quite strong in perhaps better class races than what Catapulted has contested. I have the proven open company horses The Jackal, Border Rebel, and Ahdashim as definite chances as well as the class risers Stryker and Graceful Anna.
The question to ask is, "Could Velocitea and Very Discreet win this race?". Both finished around Catapulted in the Goodwood. As Bert Bryant used to say, "The answer is a pineapple" but I do know one thing: if they ran they would not be as short as Catapulted or even close. Catapulted beat Eight Bells easily last start, a horse suspect in a truly run 1200m race , and that horse ran fourth last week, albeit by what I thought a fairly impatient ride. Eight Bells would be 15/1 in this field, if not longer. I am not saying Catapulted cannot win, as his potential is enormous, but if racing was all about just backing winners and disregarding risk versus returns I would say back him. At $1.90, regardless of potential, he is not value which means I am going to lay him.
As for a bet I will be looking towards my stable horses The Jackal and Stryker at their current prices. All told the most interesting race for the day.