Well, what a day. I could not have scripted a worse start for collects as they were far and few between for most of the day. This is not a bad thing, by the way, as it is a bad run we want to test and we certainly creamed that criteria.There were 18 win bets (SP$3.50 or less) for 4 winners (22.22%) and 23 place bets (SP$3.60 or longer) for 6 collects (26.08%). On a level stakes basis there were 41 bets for returns of $23 which is nearly 50% loss on turnover. In both areas this is below normal ex
Well, what a day. I could not have scripted a worse start for collects as they were far and few between for most of the day. This is not a bad thing, by the way, as it is a bad run we want to test and we certainly creamed that criteria.
There were 18 win bets (SP$3.50 or less) for 4 winners (22.22%) and 23 place bets (SP$3.60 or longer) for 6 collects (26.08%). On a level stakes basis there were 41 bets for returns of $23 which is nearly 50% loss on turnover. In both areas this is below normal expectations, especially on the place side.
On the betting side the bet size rose from $1 to $25 with a total outlay of $464.00 returning $367.70 for a loss of just $96.30. The next bet is $28 and this is where the really conservative approach, or call it tight if it suits, of attempting to win a ratio of 1:5000 comes into play.
Seeking to win more on a lesser bank would already find us in a completely disastrous situation. As it is we are down just under 2% of the betting bank after a really ordinary day. The question I was expecting to ask some weeks down the path was "Could you handle your minimum bet size rising from $1 to $25 or $2 to $50 or even $5 to $125?" but I am asking you this question now.
This is what happens during a bad run using target betting and the punter MUST become aware of this. Another day like last Saturday and a punters normal confidence would be severely dented with a smaller bank whereas another shocker of a day will have us tightly against the ropes but at least we will still have some capital left for Round 3, the following week.
This bad run also highlights how important the selection process is in keeping the run of outs down. In the ad hoc Plan A selections we are starting with a bodgie set of selections without doubt as not even the simplest rules have been applied (i.e. must have raced 14 days or less ago, no first uppers, no ????) hence there will be many bad runs in a series of 1000 bets and even more for a larger set.
Plan B, which are my A selections in races I am personally keen on (listen to the podcasts) fared much better with three selections: Prince Braeman in Sydney (WON 2/1 - $3.40TAB), Kens Double in Perth (2nd $4.40:$2.00 TAB) and Imvula in Queensland (UNP $8.00) for a level stakes outlay of 3 units returning 5.4 units at TAB odds. Naturally, Prince Braemar was my Best Bet Of The Day with the other two races being deemed difficult but still bettable.
Will I get out of this mess or will I be buried? If I get out and make a profit I am a hero: if I fail I am a klutz! One thing is for sure: after just one week I am like Davy Crockett at the Alamo with my back to the wall ready to fight. Join me on the blog each Saturday and for heaven's sake give each of the coming selections the best blood curdling call you can give at the 100m mark next week: we need it.