How do you feel about horses that were beaten favourites last start? If you're not familiar with them, you'll usually find a "b" or a "bf" somewhere in a form guide, giving you a clue that the horse was favourite last start, and that it didn't do the right thing by punters. I always ask three relevant questions:1. Can I find a genuinely good reason for its being beaten last start?2. Does it have a good lifetime win strike rate (say, 30% or more)? 3. Is it amongst the favourit
How do you feel about horses that were beaten favourites last start?
If you're not familiar with them, you'll usually find a "b" or a "bf" somewhere in a form guide, giving you a clue that the horse was favourite last start, and that it didn't do the right thing by punters.
I always ask three relevant questions:
1. Can I find a genuinely good reason for its being beaten last start?
2. Does it have a good lifetime win strike rate (say, 30% or more)?
3. Is it amongst the favourites today?
If I can answer YES to all three, then I know that this could be a very good bet.
But I don't try to second-guess beaten favourites.
Three YES's, or there is NO BET.
Watch the Prices of Beaten Favourites
I'm not into second-guessing. And you shouldn't be either.
The biggest clues to a good bet on a beaten favourite are still in those three relevant questions.
I want strong reasons to forgive the horse. Sometimes it's obvious, sometimes I have to work a bit harder to unearth it.
I don't want a fly-by-night horse. I can get over that very easily by looking at whether or not the horse actually wins races! If it has a terrible win strike rate, it will probably continue to disappoint everyone.
And, because it's still one of the best clues I will ever get, I want to see the horse in the market today, because that will tell me that enough people share my opinion.
There are plenty of beaten favourites, but the only ones we really want to be on are the ones that will be doing their damnedest to correct that situation!