Tracks and ConsistencyLast weekend Caulfield was hopeless if you were back near the rear.Unless you found a way through the pack. Try to go wide early and goodnight.But it's not a big enough track to be able to go too wide on the turn. If you do you're likely to end up somewhere out near the station.So various horses found. Speed Gifted was one. Hissing Sid in that same final race was another. But the winner, Red Lord, got the breaks and found a way through.Great ride or luck? A bit of both, per
Tracks and Consistency
Last weekend Caulfield was hopeless if you were back near the rear.
Unless you found a way through the pack. Try to go wide early and goodnight.
But it's not a big enough track to be able to go too wide on the turn. If you do you're likely to end up somewhere out near the station.
So various horses found. Speed Gifted was one. Hissing Sid in that same final race was another. But the winner, Red Lord, got the breaks and found a way through.
Great ride or luck? A bit of both, perhaps.
Great rider of course.
The best lesson all day was handed in by Trusting. The rider knew he was on a barnstormer. He had to wait, and anyway from his wide draw he knew he'd have no speed to even consider an early dash across the smart Guineas Prelude field.
One stride past the post and Trusting had won. At the post he was down a short half head. A certainty beaten.
Fat lot of use to tell his punters that, though.
The trouble is, regardless of all the denials and all the pomp and circumstance that accompanies the big racing, there WILL be inconsistent tracks dished up to us.
We have had instances in the recent past of watered tracks being followed by rain and thus chaotic circumstances.
And of fast lanes (heard of them???).
And slow ones.
And of racedays where the rails is lengths slower. Or faster.
Perhaps, just perhaps, it's best to save a small percentage of your day's outlay for these changed conditions when you recognize them. I've always advocated not changing one's mind because of the events that occur in the final stages of betting; but I'm wondering if there really is a case for being prepared to:
1. Change your mind, or
2. Concede a chance to a late inclusion in your equation owing to the prevailing conditions.
Obviously if there is a big change in the weather, things can radically alter. But we're talking about unpredictable occurrences: the track is playing unfairly in one way or another and it has become apparent.
Maybe 10% of your intended outlay is held back when this happens... a sort of insurance security.
Anyway think about it, and watch the actual racing patterns for a while. You'll pretty soon cotton on that, indeed:
Fast, good, dead etc, is not the final stage of calculations: there's another one.
It can't be detected until they RUN on it.
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