Sticking With The Worst?

Sticking With The Worst?Last week I indicated that I'd turn my thinking around, and consider the possibilities of seeking out the best horse in the worst race.If only it were that simple! But if you stick to the major tracks (meaning all the city tracks and the recognised provincial and country tracks that race regularly) you will, on most occasions, identify at least one horse which looks to have the wood on the others in terms of class. Of course, unless the race is a set weight affair, the ha

Sticking With The Worst?

Last week I indicated that I'd turn my thinking around, and consider the possibilities of seeking out the best horse in the worst race.

If only it were that simple! But if you stick to the major tracks (meaning all the city tracks and the recognised provincial and country tracks that race regularly) you will, on most occasions, identify at least one horse which looks to have the wood on the others in terms of class. Of course, unless the race is a set weight affair, the handicapper will have done his best to bring this horse back to the field.

However, sometimes this still won't matter, because the horse is simply too good for the field it is meeting today. I came up with a few pointers that will help you (they certainly help me) to root out these top chances, and what to do with them when you do find them.

1. Don't be too fussy about recent form, where your horse is clearly the best horse in the field by a margin. These days, a lot of trainers, including the very best trainers, get their horses ready for a race without a lot of public display. Be more concerned with the horse's class compared with the rest of the field.

2. Class has had many books written about it, but the horses you're seeking spell it out. To give you a preposterous example, if Makybe Diva had turned up in mares' race at Ballarat, you'd say that, all other factors aside, this was the best horse in the race by the proverbial country mile. It can be a gut feeling thing, this class, and sometimes you will get it when a group-class horse turns up as topweight in a welter.

3. Weights don't necessarily mean a lot when you have identified a horse which is the best in the field by a long way. This has been proved again and again in my racing life, and I can save you years of struggling with the idea by telling you straight out that when you get a really good horse in a really ordinary field, the weight is not going to stop it winning.

4. Apprentices can take a few kilos of your horse's back. But I get far more confident when I see that a trainer, especially a leading trainer, has got a horse into a race in which it is quite obviously a standout, and he/she engages the regular or a local top rider.

5. And I grow even more confident if that rider makes a significant journey to pilot the horse. It doesn't even stop there.

6. The ultimate clue, when you think you've got something nailed as a good thing, is when you see that the jockey has gone all the way for the one ride. That starts to look like one of those bets we all dream of. And I've seen it happen time and again. It won't come off every time, but there are few feelings to match having worked it all out, and getting it right.

If you follow the above sequence through, you'll certainly enjoy your racing, the rewards will be your own, and into the bargain you'll find, as I have, that you get to understand a lot more about the way certain trainers work. Next time they try a similar tactic, you'll be ready for them.

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