IT WAS HARDER THAN I THOUGHT!

IT AIN'T ALL THAT EASY, BROTHER!I spent several hours on the form analysing that one factor we spoke about late last week. How long do you spend altogether?Anyway, I finally eliminated Eagle Farm completely, because I was unsure of the track surface, and the horses I was interested in were threatened by three or four others, meaning that even a place was problematical.So, I opted for Hawkesbury and Caulfield.Neeson looked the best all day and surely only the toppie could roll him. The toppie cam

IT AIN'T ALL THAT EASY, BROTHER!

I spent several hours on the form analysing that one factor we spoke about late last week. How long do you spend altogether?

Anyway, I finally eliminated Eagle Farm completely, because I was unsure of the track surface, and the horses I was interested in were threatened by three or four others, meaning that even a place was problematical.

So, I opted for Hawkesbury and Caulfield.

Neeson looked the best all day and surely only the toppie could roll him. The toppie came out on the friday, and then I feared for the place price, especially TAB. And of course one more scratching and there'd be only two dividends. He still looked a near-certainty to win.

Pinwheel was the other near-cert, but he too would pay a pittance for the place.

On revealed recent and comparative form, I gave a huge chance to Snow Alert. There were two other big chances in the race but I finally decided that Snow Alert was pretty watertight for the place: excellent form, great barrier, won at the distance, the trainer of the moment... yes, he'd do nicely.

In my view, Caulfield had but two chances all day: Bird of Fire, well drawn in the final race with a string of placings and lots of revealed form (including a protest that went against him; but he had a relatively inexperienced rider) and Nine Tales, which was a certainty from a decent draw... which he didn't have!

I allowed Nine Tales. I thought he was the likely winner, but from the outside barrier there were "if's". As it was, he came from last and won easily. It happens. He was either going to do that or be chopped out.

My final decision was to go with Neeson and Snow Alert at Hawkesbury, and Bird of Fire down south along with Nine Tales. Using just one TAB so that everyone can see the bottom line, Neeson paid a remarkable $1,30 on the TAB. Before you scoff, that's 30% on the closest thing to a racecourse certainty you're going to see this year! Snow Alert paid $1.90, Nine Tales paid a weak $1.50, and Bird of Fire ran unplaced.

Pinwheel won. That happens too. But we're examining long term safety measures and there'll be the good and the bad in the Department of Deletions.

With three doubles and one treble, we returned $10.97 of the $11 outlaid. Four bets "won" and seven lost in the combination multiple.

Interestingly, the three shorties that "won" all DID win. Makes you think further?

Have a think about this and I'll get back with you in 48 hours.