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Melbourne Cup 2023 Free Tips

Tuesday, 7 November 2023, 3 PM Flemington Group 1

2023 Melbourne Cup Free Tips

TOP TIPS FOR THE CUP

Ladbrokes YOUR MELBOURNE CUP BETTING
Selection Bet ^ WIN Bet Now
1. VAUBAN       Bet Now
2. SOULCOMBE       Bet Now
3. WITHOUT A FIGHT       Bet Now
4. LASTOTCHKA       Bet Now
5. OKITA SOUSHI       Bet Now
        Bet Now
        Bet Now
Bet Now
^SEE T&CS ON WEBSITE.

Who Will Win the 2023 Melbounre Cup?

By BRIAN BLACKWELL

Practical Punting chief form analyst Brian Blackwell takes a searching look at this year’s 2023 Melbourne Cup and highlights his top 6 earlybird selections plus a wildcard at triple figure odds. All form and prices as available at Oct 30.

 ABSURDE 18/1 to 16/1 to 18/1: Useful 5YO from the Willie Mullins stable. Big effort 1st/11 Ebor 2800m Aug 26. Has won over hurdles in Ireland. Stays well, the stable is astute – which means Absurde is no joke. UK rating 104.


GOLD TRIP 14/1 to 15/4 to 7/2: Won last year’s 3200m Melbourne Cup and seems to have come back in fine fettle. Bold late on return from a spell 4th/14 Moonee Valley 2040m Sep 9 and followed that with a sizzling late-burst win in the Grp 1 wfa Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Oct 7. Connections were surprised by the power of the win. He has 58.5kgs in the Flemington 2 miler and this is a huge challenge. Strong late 3rd/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 2.2 lens conceding weight to winner and runner-up.
  •        Closed off OK from rear on the turn to finish 5th in Grp 1 Cox Plate 2040m Oct 28.


WITHOUT A FIGHT 16/1 to 7/1: Ran only 13th/22 in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Returned off a spell to notch wins at 1800m/2200m at Eagle Farm in May/June. Highly regarded 7YO. Ran on from 11th on the homer turn for 6th to Alligator Blood in Underwood 1800m Caulfield Sep 23, btn 2.25 lens at 7/2. Has to carry 55.5kgs which weights him at a tough level but he can stay. Not many 7YOs win the Cup, though.
 
  •        Bold 1st/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 0.2 West Wind Blows. Mark Zahra has snapped up the ride.


BREAKUP 10/1 to 13/1: Interesting Japanese stayer with placed performances at 3000m/3200m in Grp 1 and 2 class in Japan. Best recent effort Apr 30 4th/17 Kyoto 3200m, btn 2 lens Grp 1 Tenno Sho. The formlines signal the 6YO could prove competitive with 55kgs.
 
  •        Battling effort 8th/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 5.7 lengths. Should handle Flemington 3200m OK.


VAUBAN 7/2 throughout: One of the big early tips for the Cup. Trained by Willie Mullins, the 6YO has solid formlines.  Won at Naas (Ire) 2400m Grp 3 x 1.5 lens on Aug 7. One June 20 he was 1st/16 Ascot UK 2800m Cl 2 beating Absurde by 7.5 lens. Likely to be one of the main chances if all goes well. Rating 114.


FRANCESCO GUARDI 11/1 to 12/1: Trained by Chris Waller. Won the Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Grp 2 in October last year, beating Lunar Flare by 3.75 lens (level weights). Ran 5th to Mr Brightside in the 1600m Makybe Diva at Flemington on Sep 16, btn 3.4 lens. Handicapped on 54kgs (5.5kgs under wfa). Disappointing 17th/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 14.3 lengths. On that run will need big improvement.


SOULCOMBE 15/2 to 9/1: Has been racing well. Ran on stoutly from 10th 400m to finish 4th/15 in the Underwood 1800m at Caulfield on Sep 23. That followed an eye-catching win in the heatherlie (Listed) 1700m at Caulfield on Sep 2. The 5YO is in the Chris Waller stable. He’s won over 2787m. He has 53.5kgs to carry which looks reasonable. How much scope has he distance wise? He has finished his races strongly up to near 2800m so the signs are positive.
 
  •        Ran 7th/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 5.5 lens after a very slow getaway. On his 'best' day he can be a top chance.


VOW AND DECLARE 150/1 to 25/1: Has won the Cup but a repeat is a mountain to climb. He’s an 8YO and that’s veteran territory and not a good winner-finder as far as the Cup is concerned. Gets his chance with 53kgs but will need to be right at his top. Showed something of his best form with his 2nd in the Might & Power 2000m at Caulfield on Oct 14.
  •        Maintained form 2nd/14 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Grp 2 Oct 27, btn 0.75 by Cleveland.


LASTOTCHKA 20/1 throughout: Not much hype about this French stayer – and stayer she is. Her best form has been shown at 2400m and longer. She won over 3100m at Longchamp Grp 3 on Sep 3 so that’s evidence of her staying ability (he won by 2 lens). A 5YO she is handicapped on 51kgs which is 7kgs under wfa. Has she slipped by the handicapper? Time will tell. Rating 106.


DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR 150/1 to 100/1: Ran a respectable 6th/22 in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Has been staying on nicely in leadup races 1600m to 2400m. The stable is aiming for just the one race – the Cup. He’s a tough staying 6YO weighted on 51.5kgs. Longshot chance via his last start 4th in the 2400m Herbert Power at Caulfield on Oct 14.


CLEVELAND 80/1 to 20/1: A member of the Kris Lees team, the 6YO ran 4th/16 in the Premier’s Cup 2000m Grp 3 on Aug 19 (1st-up for 19 weeks) and then was 9th/16 in the Newcastle Cup 2300m Grp 3 on Sep 15. Has won over 3749m at Chester in May 2022 so the staying ability is there. Ran 2nd in the 2600m St Leger at Randwick on Oct 14.
  •        Won Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Grp 2 Oct 27 (from 8th on home turn).



OKITA SOUSHI 33/1 to 50/1: Has a knockout feel about him. The 6YO entire is weighted on 51.5kgs. His form look strong enough to suggest he has a role to play. Aug 20 3rd/4 Curragh 2800m Grp 3. June 23 1st/18 Ascot 2400m Cl 2 x neck (Duke of Edinburgh Stakes) – a top ride by Ryan Moore. Another Joseph O’Brien contender. Rating 109.
  •        Disappointing 12th/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 9.9 lengths. Must show improvement to be a Melbourne Cup chance but he’s in the right stable to do that.


MORE FELONS (formerly Scriptwriter) 100/1 to 33/1: Aug 26 8th/22 Ebor 2800m at York, btn 3.25 lens by Absurde (held up 400m). The Ebor run was a touch luckless and he should have finished closer. Rating 106.
  •        Good effort 5th/13 Geelong Cup 2400m Grp 3 Oct 25, beaten just over a half length.


FUTURE HISTORY 25/1 to 20/1 to 25/1: Scored a convincing win over First Immortal in The Lexus Bart Cummings 2510m at Flemington on Oct 7, gaining a Cup start. The 6YO’s recent form for the Maher & Eustace stable has been sound and includes a Moonee Valley 2040m win on Aug 26 followed by a 2nd there in BM100 class on Sep 9. Lightweight with a chance.
  •        Kept up useful form with 3rd/14 Moonee Valley Gold 2500m Grp 2 Oct 27, btn just under a length.


HIGH EMOCEAN 33/1 to 40/1: Ran 3rd/22 to Gold Trip in last year’s Cup but this campaign has been slight. Only 13th in Grp 3 2520m at Flemington on Oct 7. Hard to see it figuring.
  •        No improvement when 13th/13 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Grp 2 Oct 27.


RIGHT YOU ARE 80/1 to 60/1:  Surprised with a good effort for 5th/18 Caulfield Cup 2400m x 4.15 lens. Form is not bad but is in the powerful Maher and Eustace stable and cannot be discounted. Has won 2400m.


ALENQUER 40/1: Formlines look ordinary although he shaped fairly for 9th/14 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Oct 27, btn 3.5 lens.  Hard to see him win.


EL BODEGON 50/1: Needs to improve sharply. Beaten 6 lens 12th/14 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Grp 2 Oct 27.


SPANISH MISSION 66/1: ran 3rd in the Cup 2021. Latest effort 8th/16 Turnbull Stakes Grp 1 Oct 7, btn 5.15 lens at 150/1. Now with Moody/Coleman stable. He’s an 8YO and they have a poor Cup record.


KNIGHT’S ORDER 150/1: Only 14th in Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m and vast improvement needed to figure over 3200m.


MAGICAL LAGOON 300/1: Form does not measure up at the moment. Ran 6th/13 Geelong Cup 2400m Grp 3 Oct 25.


FAME 200/1: Ran 15th Caulfield Cup and was soundly btn by 13 lengths at 200/1. Extreme roughie.


SHERAZ 100/1: Has won over 3000m in France. Finished 8th/14 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500m Grp 2 and was btn only 2 lens. The 8YO’s overseas form is not too bad. Not the roughest of the roughies.


MILITARY MISSION 50/1: Won the 2400m Herbert Power Grp 2 at Caulfield on Oct 14. The 6YO’s form is not too bad and he’s in the Waterhouse-Bott stable so he’ll be keyed up to handle a tough run.

 

**BRIAN’S TOP SIX**

 
(1)  VAUBAN...7/2
(2)  SOULCOMBE...9/1
(3)  WITHOUT A FIGHT...7/1
(4)  LASTOTCHKA...20/1
(5)  OKITA SOUSHI...50/1




MELBOURNE CUP TIPS & BETTING IDEAS

Now a bit of info about the Cup - and finding the winner.

The key races in which the Cup winner or placegetters may emerge are as follows:

Lexus Stakes, Turnbull, Bart Cummings, Geelong Cup, Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate.

Or you can simply find what could be a winning formula.


Check out each runner on the day with this following set of factors:

1. Ran in the first 4 in the Caulfield Cup.
2. Has won over 2400m or longer in the last 6 months.
3. International visitor who has won or been 2nd or 3rd at Group 1, 2 or 3 level in the last 12 months.
4. Is carrying 58kgs or less.
5. Is the horse 7 years or under? Anything older than 7 faces a black history.

Another betting plan is to back every runner listed at 20/1 or under on race day. Yes, back them all. You'll often nab the winner and get yourself a profit.

On the exotics market, the trifecta offers the chance of big rewards.

The ideal budget approach is to try to isolate the 2 horses who will run 1st and 2nd - and then link them with the rest of the field to finish 3rd.

In a 24-horse maximum field, this bet will cost you $44. You could win many thousands of dollars if the prices are right.

BUT....you will need a longshot bolter to fill the 3rd place!

 

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Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup 2023 Dates

NOMINATIONS Tuesday 5 September, 2023
1ST ACCEPTANC Tuesday 3 October, 2023
2ND ACCEPTANCES Tuesday 14 October, 2023
3RD ACCEPTANCES Monday 30 October, 2023
FORM GUIDE Saturday 4 November, 2023
RACE DAY Tue, 7 November, 2023

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