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Melbourne Cup 2024 Free Tips

Tuesday, 5 November 2024, 3 PM Flemington Group 1

2024 Melbourne Cup Free Tips

TOP TIPS FOR THE CUP

Ladbrokes YOUR MELBOURNE CUP BETTING
Selection Bet ^ WIN Bet Now
1. VAUBAN       Bet Now
2. WARP SPEED       Bet Now
3. SEA KING       Bet Now
4. BUCKAROO       Bet Now
5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR       Bet Now
6. OKITA SOUSHI       Bet Now
        Bet Now
Bet Now
^SEE T&CS ON WEBSITE.

Who Will Win the 2024 Melbounre Cup?

By BRIAN BLACKWELL

Who’ll win the 2024 Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 5? Practical Punting editor Brian Blackwell previews the major prospects (as at Oct 27). The horses are listed in order of betting (as at October 27).

BUCKAROO 6G Chris Waller 20/1 into 6/1: Produced sound effort 2nd/16 Flemington Oct 5 x 0.2 2000m Turnbull Stks behind Via Sistina (nailed on the line). Bold wins Randwick 1600m, Caulfield 1600m in Grp 2 and 1 Sep 7 and 21;  winner at 1800m; Chris Waller stable; seems to be building up for the 3200m. His ability to find plenty under pressure is an asset.


ONESMOOTHOPERATOR 7G B Ellison 50/1 into 6/1: Dominant performance to win the 2400m Grp 3 Geelong Cup by 2.25 lens on Oct 2. This race has proven a winning guide for the Melbourne Cup. His form in UK is sound. Ran 4th Kempton 2414m on Sep 7. Seems to have improved sharply since arriving in Australia. Has won over 3300m so the trip should not worry him.


VAUBAN 7G Willie Mullins 11/1 into 10/1: Ran down the track 14th/23 in last year’s Melbourne Cup and was beaten more than 13 lengths. Latest performances indicate he’s back to his best. He won the Lonsdale Cup 3319m at York on Aug 23 carrying the steadier of 59.5kgs. After that he was 2nd/6 in the Grp 1 Irish St Leger 2816m at The Curragh on Sep 15. He looks favorably treated with 55.5kgs in the Melbourne Cup (4kgs under WFA). He gets every chance to display his peak form ability. His career record of 8 wins and 7 placings from 20 starts is impressive, even though some of the runs were over the jumps.


ABSURDE 7G Willie Mullins 16/1 steady:  Last start winner Chester Stakes 2916m Aug 31. Has also won over hurdles. Stablemate of Vauban and both are reported to have done well at the Werribee isolation area.  Form indicates he’s a solid stayer (has won over 4000m), but ‘speed and acceleration’ will be his key obstacle.


LAND LEGEND 5g Chris Waller 25/1 into 16/1:  Another valid prospect from the powerful Chris Waller stable. Big effort for 3rd to Duke de Sessa in Grp 1 2400m Caulfield Cup on Oct 9, btn 6.25 lens. That followed his Metropolitan 2400m Grp 1 victory at Randwick on Oct 5. Has won at 2600m. With 53kgs to carry he rates as a longshot prospect.


INTERPRETATION 7G Ciaron Maher 80/1 into 17/1:  Latest 2 runs have been his best for a while. Last start ran home solidly for 2nd at 20/1 in the 2400m Geelong Cup on Oct 23 and that followed his 6th in the Bart Cummings  Grp 3 2520m at Flemington on Oct 5, btn  2.3 lens. Is in the right stable for a big race bid, and the stable has a reputation for landing long-priced winners (100/1 in the Qld Oaks!). Whether he’s up to a demanding Cup battle is the issue.


OKITA SOUSHI: 7H Ciaron Maher 80/1 into 20/1: Made a positive impression winning Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Grp 2 Oct 25; sound 2nd/15 Grp 2 Herbert Power 2400m Oct 13. Gets in with only 50kgs and is a winner over 3200m. Jamie Kah will ride. Lightweight prospect for sure.


KOVALICA 5G Chris Waller 100/1 into 25/1: Useful effort 4th/20 Epsom 1600m Grp 1 Randwick x 2 lens Oct 5; has to find quite a few lengths to stay 2 miles but the 5YO is in the Chris Waller stable; not won for close to 2 years.


CIRCLE OF FIRE 5H Ciaron Maher 10/1 to 25/1 … Was early favorite for the Cup but then ran a poor 8th/8 in the Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m at Flemington on Sep 14 although the heavy-9 ground may have been against him? He won the Sydney Cup 3200m Grp 1 last April so we know he can stay – though whether he can take the next step to the Melbourne Cup is the key issue. He has the right trainer to haul him up and that’s Ciaron Maher.


SEA KING 6G Harry Eustace 100/1 into 9/1: Impressive winner of the Bendigo Cup 2400m last Wednesday, producing a searching run out wide from the 800m and sustaining momentum to the line. Has a potent formline via the Ebor in UK, running well to finish 6th/20m btn almost 5 lens. Seas King gets in nicely with 50./5kgs (including 0.5kg penalty).



WARP SPEED 6H Noboru Tagaki 33/1 steady: Well-credentialled Japanese stayer who gets in OK with 5kgs under WFA. He ran a bold 5th in the Tenno Sho 3200m in Japan on Apr 28 and was also prominent in the Hanshin Daishoten 3200m. On those performances he should play a major role in the Cup. Failed in the Caulfield Cup 2400m but it’s probably better to forget that defeat and concentrate on his 3200m Japanese form.


JUST FINE 7G Waterhouse/Bott 25/1 to 40/1: Won the Grp 3 Bart Cummings 2520m Oct 5 after string of ordinary performances. The 3200m will be a major test.


THE MAP 6M Clarken & MacGillivray 25/1 out to 40/1: Gained automatic qualification but has not done much to excite in lead-up runs. It will need sharp improvement for her to figure in the finish.


SHARP ‘N’ SMART 5G G Rogerson 66/1 to 80/1: Beaten more than 10 lens in 2000m Turnbull Stakes Grp 1 Flemington Oct 5 and will need to improve sharply. He’s in the Rogerson stable in NZ and is a winner at 2400m. Roughie chance.

 



MELBOURNE CUP TIPS & BETTING IDEAS

Now a bit of info about the Cup - and finding the winner.

The key races in which the Cup winner or placegetters may emerge are as follows:

Lexus Stakes, Turnbull, Bart Cummings, Geelong Cup, Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate.

Or you can simply find what could be a winning formula.


Check out each runner on the day with this following set of factors:

1. Ran in the first 4 in the Caulfield Cup.
2. Has won over 2400m or longer in the last 6 months.
3. International visitor who has won or been 2nd or 3rd at Group 1, 2 or 3 level in the last 12 months.
4. Is carrying 58kgs or less.
5. Is the horse 7 years or under? Anything older than 7 faces a black history.

Another betting plan is to back every runner listed at 20/1 or under on race day. Yes, back them all. You'll often nab the winner and get yourself a profit.

On the exotics market, the trifecta offers the chance of big rewards.

The ideal budget approach is to try to isolate the 2 horses who will run 1st and 2nd - and then link them with the rest of the field to finish 3rd.

In a 24-horse maximum field, this bet will cost you $44. You could win many thousands of dollars if the prices are right.

BUT....you will need a longshot bolter to fill the 3rd place!

 

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Melbourne Cup

Melbourne Cup 2024 Dates

NOMINATIONS Tue, 3 September, 2024 
1ST ACCEPTANCES     Tue, 1 October, 2024
2ND ACCEPTANCES    Tue, 15 October, 2024 
3RD ACCEPTANCES     Mon, 28 October, 2024  
FORM GUIDE Sat, 2 November, 2024  
RACE DAY Tue, 5 November, 2024

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