Whatever people say, this is the race everyone loves, and it is the clockstopper. Everyone is an authority, and they all have an opinion. So it should be. It surely is a difficult race to pick, as we all know.
One aspect of it that has become more prominent over the past few years is that overseas horses (I don’t mean Kiwi raiders) enter—and win—the race. It has to be taken into account from now on. The class of the American bred, much travelled At Talaq demonstrated last year what we are in for from now on.
The question is, what can locals do about it, and I think the answer is “not much” whilst we keep putting on nonsense races for the babies. Geoff Chapman got it right, back in March, when his horse Myocard proved its class with a win over Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star in the Rawson Stakes at Rosehill. He remarked that the best horses can run a distance and are not born to be speedy squibs. I refer you to an article of mine in Educating the Punter of the May edition for PPM. if you want to follow this up. \
We have to live with the fact that most of our much-lauded “champions” will never reach Cox Plate status as they have had it after 1400 metres (if they get that far!). Not to say there isn’t a place for sprinters . . . but you cannot have it both ways unless you have a freak galloper like the great Kingston Town who could do anything.
So a plan for the Melbourne Cup has to be devised around the best stayers and they will often be imports. Usually the handicapper will have their measure, but not always, as we saw with Beldale Ball. Here are the rules, then the comments:
RULES:
- The horse must have run first to fifth in the Caulfield Cup OR have won a major staying race in Australasia in the past 12 months.
- The horse must be trained by a leading trainer OR for a leading owner.
- The horse must have a weight of at least 52 kgs.
- The horse must be at 16-1 or less in the Sunday market.
- If the track is wet, the horse must have won over at least 2400 metres on a heavy track.
- If the horse has raced in the Cup before, it must have finished in the first eight.
COMMENTS:
As usual, I like to see some form. So the first rule demands some form.
I suppose that rule 2 is a bit subjective, but most of my readers can make their own minds up about this sort of thing. For example, we all know Robert Sangster and company, and we all know Colin Hayes and so on. There may be an area of grey here, but I think it’s a good rule and it’s not that hard to sort out.
I want the handicapper to do his job for us here and give us a leg up. The lightweights can make fools of us all, but I prefer to see the money on the better class of animal in what is, let’s face it, a race for all-comers.
I use the Sunday market for two reasons:
(i) Everyone goes haywire by Monday morning; and
(ii) Straight after the Saturday racing is when you will get your very best assessments of the chances. Even old What A Nuisance was listed at 16-1 on Sunday.
The rain will play havoc with Flemington (or anywhere), so I include rule 5, and rule 6 is one I have developed over the years as a safeguard. They may place second time around, and even once in a blue moon win . . . but not often enough. Mostly you can say once failed always failed as far as this race is concerned
OTHER POINTERS FOR THE BIG RACE
As readers are well aware, the biggest pointer of all is the Caulfield Cup. I am against prepost betting on doubles as most of the money is left in the bookmakers’ bags.
But if you can get on a TAB double, usually with bracketed runners, you can often have a bit of fun. For example, you can link your top three for the first Cup with everything in the second Cup for a cost at 50 cents a bet of $36. Now if you are lucky enough to get one up, you could be looking at some magnificent dividends.
On the other hand, if you have a longshot or two for the Cup, you can couple the Victoria Derby field with them and for an outlay of about $14 have a chance at a nice collect. That way at least you have a show, but the other way is like backing trotters from standing starts, or worse still steeplechasers!
The Melbourne Cup is not a race to go mad about and lose heaps, but we cannot help ourselves, so I suggest that you decide in advance – NOW – how much you are going to outlay. Quite seriously, I could have had the $14,000 trifecta in N.S.W. last year if I had been prepared to box seven horses . . . I was not, and I don’t regret it at all, because that sort of betting is crazy unless you have a massive bank. But there is a case for having one splurge a year when you know there will be some crazy odds around. If you decide that once a year—you are going to outlay $210 on a trifecta (half in enlightened states) then OK, go ahead and box seven runners.
You might crack it, and if you do it will be marvellous. But remember you are taking a lottery ticket.
My other tip is to watch which horses are backed in from 20-1 and thereabouts on Monday, and forget them (except when it is teeming). I can only recall one ever winning after that. Good luck in November!
PPM, October 87